这是“它”吗?萧条理论的概要

F. J. C. Carvalho
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引用次数: 9

摘要

这场危机始于2007年的美国,并于2008年蔓延至全球,人们将其与上世纪30年代的大萧条相提并论。它们的共同点是经济活动水平大幅下降(尽管在2010年代,政府干预能够在衰退达到上世纪30年代的规模之前遏制住衰退),随后是一段复苏不确定和脆弱的时期,美国和西欧的情况都是如此。本文概述了一个包含这两个方面的抑郁症理论。该理论借鉴了凯恩斯、费雪、明斯基和莱约胡弗德的理论贡献,提出“稳定走廊”的概念可能有助于解释最初的不利总体冲击如何导致收缩螺旋,其中债务通缩是解释经济下行的主要机制,以及为什么人们应该预期随后会出现一段疲软和不稳定的复苏时期。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Is this 'it'? An outline of a theory of depressions
The crisis initiated in the United States in 2007, and spread worldwide in 2008, has been compared to the Great Depression of the 1930s. They have in common a deep fall in the level of activity (although in the 2010s government intervention was able to contain the fall before it could reach the dimensions of the 1930s), followed by a period where recovery is uncertain and fragile, as has been the case both in the US and in Western Europe. The paper outlines a theory of depression that comprises both aspects. The theory draws on the theoretical contributions of Keynes, Fisher, Minsky and Leijonhufvud, proposing that the concept of "corridor of stability" may help to explain how an initial adverse aggregate shock may lead to a contractionary spiral, where debt deflation is main mechanism to explain the downward movement of the economy and why one should expect a period of weak and volatile recovery to follow it.
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