POSSIBILITIES AND BASIS FOR FORECASTING THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE

The methodological difficulties of predicting the economic consequences of global climate change are studied. The weak reliability of the input information - climate forecast data, the discrepancy between both spatial and temporal scales in climate and economic studies was noted. It is shown that, despite the variability of cost indicators, the ordinal relations between them are quite stable. It is substantiated that predictive economic and climatological research should be based on a scenario approach and interpretation of the forecast as an analysis of a possible future.