Institutions and Popular Control of Public Policy

In democracy, public opinion is supposed to influence policymaking, yet evidence on the amount of congruence between policy and opinion, or the factors that affect congruence, is scarce. This paper constructs a simple measure of policy congruence on 10 separate issues in all 50 states. For these policies, states chose the outcome favored by the majority 59 percent of the time, only 9 percent more often than would happen with random policymaking. Congruence was approximately 17 to 19 percent higher when initiatives, a form of direct democracy, were allowed. Congruence was 12 to 14 percent lower when judges were not required to stand for reelection. Congruence was not correlated with a variety of election laws, including campaign contribution limits, public funding of campaigns, and commission-based redistricting.