短期负荷预测方法综述

D. Upadhaya, Ritula Thakur, N. Singh
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引用次数: 7

摘要

负荷预测一直是电力系统规划和扩展所需要的。随着智能电网的出现,负荷预测及其管理已成为研究人员首要关注的问题。负荷预测不仅对发展中国家具有挑战性,对发达国家和工业化国家也是如此。发展中国家的主要问题是缺乏必要的数据、适当的负荷预测模型和所需的机构,这些限制对发达国家来说不那么严重。由于模型结构的限制和数据的缺失,经常发现预测的能源需求与实际需求存在偏差。本文在126篇研究论文的基础上对负荷预测方法进行了系统综述,确定了基于时间、输入、输出和误差类型的最佳负荷预测方法。比较的方法是时间序列分析和机器学习算法。这个荟萃分析的定义是帮助研究人员从他们的问题中选择正确的模型,从而做出有效的决策。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A systematic review on the methods of short term load forecasting
Load forecasting is always required for the planning and extension of power system. With the emergence of smart grid, forecasting of load and its management has been a primal concern for a researcher. Load forecasting has been challenging not only for developing countries but also for developed and industrialized nations. The main problems for developing nations are missing necessary data, appropriate load forecasting models and required institutions, these limitations are somewhat less serious for developed nations. Due to limitations in the model structure and missing data forecasted energy demands are often found to deviate from the actual demands. This paper contains a systematic review on the methods of load forecasting which is done on the basis of 126 research papers and the best methods for load forecasting on the basis of time, inputs, outputs and error type have been determined. The methods compared are time series analysis and machine learning algorithms. This meta-analysis has been defined to help researchers to take an effective decision by choosing the right model from their problem.
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