MODELLING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN POPULATION GROWTH AND INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT IN NIGERIA: AN AUTO-REGRESSIVE DISTRIBUTIVE LAG APPROACH (1980-2017)

This research work focuses on the relationship between population growth and industrial output in Nigeria for the period 1980 to 2017. It is particularly interesting to study the relationship between population growth and industrialization in Nigeria because at present, Nigeria is making rapid effort to advance her economy while undergoing a demographic transition that has been projected to be geometric in nature. This research developed an Auto-regressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) model using Index of Industrial Output as the dependent variable and Population growth rate, Birth rate, Total Labour Force (as a percentage of total population that are employed), Capacity Utilization and Manpower Development Index as the independent variables. The data was obtained from the World Bank, the National Population Commission and the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletins (various issues). The findings reveal that Population Growth Rate has an inverse relationship with Industrial Output both in the short run and in the long run while Total Labour Force and Capacity Utilization also decrease Industrial Output both in the short and long-run periods. Since the Bounds test reveals a long-run relationship between population and Industrial Output, we recommend a renewed determination and political will to implement the National Policy on Population for sustainable development that outlines a sectoral strategy to manage our rising population.