局部气候演化调控机制的实验检验

Y. Kolokolov, A. Monovskaya, V. Bagrov
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引用次数: 5

摘要

气候系统是一个转换太阳能的非线性系统。因此,将分岔理论和控制理论结合到局部气候演化调控机制的研究中,可以得到有趣的结果。例如,五年前提出了所谓的HDS-假说,根据该假说,局部气候动力学是由振幅量子化(受温度滞后的限制)和时间量子化(由双同步引起)之间的自然竞争决定的。基于该假设的局地气候动力学概念模式(hds模式)首先通过处理气象观测资料建立了分岔图,并从分岔结果解释了年际变率现象。在这里,我们讨论hds假设是为了找到一种方法来软化在传统气候学范围内已知的问题,即:如何在分析所需数据的本质稀缺性下研究局部气候动力学的演变。我们采用电子装置,其数学模型相当于hds模型。当平均气象变量(温度、压力、降水等)发生快速变化时,我们关注的是复杂的行为,这在传统的局部气候动力学假设中是不应该考虑的。我们将数学模型所得到的动力学演化与电子系统和自然实际系统的观测结果进行了比较。从控制理论来看,这些结果表明HDS动力学与局地气候动力学具有显著的相似性;这些结果从气候理论出发,继续了局部动力学演化的跨学科探索。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Experimental Testing the Regulator Mechanisms of Local Climate Evolution
A climate system represents a nonlinear system to convert solar energy. So, involving both the bifurcation theory and the control theory into the research concerning regulator mechanisms of local climate evolution can give interesting results. For example, five years ago so-called HDS- hypothesis was proposed, in accordance with which local climate dynamics is determined by natural competition between the amplitude quantization (restricted by the temperature Hysteresis) and the time quantization (caused by the Double Synchronization). The conceptual model of local climate dynamics from this hypothesis (so-called HDS-model) first provided building bifurcation diagrams by processing the data of meteorological observations and also explained the phenomenon of the interannual variability from the bifurcation consequences. Here we discuss the HDS-hypothesis in order to find a way to soften the problem known within the limits of the traditional climatology, namely: how to research evolution of local climate dynamics under the essential scarcity of the data necessary to analysis. We use the electronic setup, mathematical model of which is equivalent to the HDS-model. We focus on complex behaviors when fast alternations of averaged meteorological variables (temperature, pressure, precipitation, and so on) can occur, which are not supposed to consider in the context of the traditional hypothesis on local climate dynamics. We compare the dynamics evolution made by the mathematical modeling with the observations made for both electronic and natural real systems. From the control theory, these results show striking similarity between the HDS- dynamics and local climate dynamics; from the climate theory, these results continue the novel interdisciplinary exploring in the local dynamics evolution.
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