好的谎言

Filippo Pavesi, Massimo Scotti
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引用次数: 3

摘要

决策者经常面临顾问的能力和诚信的不确定性。如果一个专家足够关心建立一个熟练和公正的声誉,她可能会如实报告她关于决策相关状态的私人信息。然而,在诚实均衡中,决策者只了解专家的能力,而在有一些错误报告的均衡中,决策者也了解专家的偏见。尽管诚实的行为可以使当前的决定更加明智,但它可能导致最糟糕的排序。因此,如果决策者对未来的选择给予足够的重视,而不是现在的选择,撒谎可能会改善福利。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Good Lies
Decision makers often face uncertainty both about the ability and the integrity of their advisors. If an expert is sufficiently concerned about establishing a reputation for being skilled and unbiased, she may truthfully report her private information about the decision-relevant state. However, while in a truthtelling equilibrium the decision maker learns only about the ability of the expert, in an equilibrium with some misreporting the decision maker also learns about the expert’s bias. Although truthful behavior allows for more informed current decisions, it may lead to worst sorting. Therefore, if a decision maker places enough weight on future choices relative to present ones, lying may be welfare improving.
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