Forecasting Food Prices in the AnyLogic Information System

The article describes an original approach to modelling the food market with the use of the developed by Russian scientists AnyLogic software. The authors propose a model of system dynamics simulating the behavior of the meat and meat products market in the time period from 2000 to 2019. The acquired results include balance consumer prices for the three basic products: poultry, beef, and pork. The calculation of the midterm forecast of consumer prices in these markets confirms the reliability of the simulation model. The original model illustrates the historic dynamics of the market situation. The research shows that food markets are highly variable in such characteristics as the level of protection from import, the amount of state support, the level of competition, and the entry and exit barriers. As a result, the retrospective survey reveals a volatile growth rate of production volumes in this segment of the food market (poultry, beef, and pork). Thus, the poultry market is saturated with domestic products that have substituted imported goods. At the same time, the low growth tempo of the cattle meat production has brought to import dependence. The obtained results of the survey may be applied as tools for developing the economic regulation policy in the agro production markets. Keywords—Forecasting, systemdynamicmodelling, food markets, effective market management, AnyLogic