全球危机的因素

Yuriy A. Krupnov, V. Starovoitov, D. Troshin
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引用次数: 0

摘要

文章主题的相关性是由于全球经济的负面趋势的形成,加强了即将到来的全球危机的先决条件和因素。澄清这些因素的必要性是由于地缘经济条件的迅速变化和世界上地缘政治力量的结盟。这篇文章的目的是确定全球危机的因素和他们的排名。目标。为此,正在解决下列任务:研究确定危机现象升级的先决条件的现有办法并加以核查;全球危机的整体因素及其在某些地区的表现形式向管理机构提出建议,以系统地评估和预测危机的先决条件,使用动态模型并考虑到各个因素的层次。方法。研究的方法论基础是系统的、因子的分析,以及全球经济发展中的发展观念和世界经济格局的变化。结果。研究的主要结果是证实了全球危机的整体因素,并在文明、资源、金融、信息、环境和其他领域构建了其个别表现形式。结论。研究表明,这些因素都是制度性的,都源于社会经济的根本矛盾,不解决社会经济的根本矛盾是不可能消除的。强调指出,确定和评估全球风险的过程并非没有主观性和个别专家和国际组织的利益冲突。因此,必须核实和重新考虑这些建议,以便消除国际(主要是西方)专家的主观性,并考虑到俄罗斯联邦的国家利益和目标。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Factors of the Global Crisis
The relevance of the topic of the article is due to the formation of negative trends in the global economy, strengthening the prerequisites and factors of the upcoming global crises. The need to clarify these factors is due to the rapid changes in geo-economic conditions and the geopolitical alignment of forces in the world. The purpose of the article is to identify the factors of the global crisis and their ranking. Objectives. To do this, the following tasks are being solved: research of existing approaches to identifying the prerequisites for the escalation of crisis phenomena and their verification; substantiation of the integral factor of the global crisis and the forms of its manifestation in certain areas; development of proposals to management bodies for assessing and predicting the prerequisites of crises on a systematic basis, using dynamic modeling and taking into account the hierarchy of individual factors. Methodology. The methodological basis of the study is a systematic and factor analysis, as well as the concept of development and change of world economic patterns in global economic development. Results. The main result of the study is the substantiation of the integral factor of the global crisis and the structuring of its individual manifestations in the civilizational, resource, financial, information, environmental and other spheres. Conclusions. It is shown that all the factors considered are systemic in nature, stem from fundamental socio-economic contradictions and cannot be eliminated without resolving these contradictions. It is emphasized that the process of identifying and assessing global risks is not free from subjectivity and conflict of interests of individual experts and international organizations. This makes it necessary to verify and rethink them in order to eliminate the subjectivity of international (mainly Western) experts and taking into account the national interests and goals of the Russian Federation.
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