基于地面观测的哈瓦萨气候趋势和变率分析

Kefiyalew Ayele Alandu
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引用次数: 1

摘要

降水和温度是一个地区气候变化和变率的主要决定因素。它们的变化会破坏在农业和非农业经营活动中发挥重要作用的正常水文过程。本研究旨在通过统计和Mann Kendall试验方法确定1973-2018年哈瓦萨站的气候学、趋势、雨季的开始和消退以及温度和降水的变化。最低温度和最高温度的上升趋势分别为0.05和0.04℃,具有较高的决定系数(r2 = 0.63和0.66)。年降雨量的变异系数为15.2%,均值为965.3mm,标准差为146.5。季节上,比利时季节变异性较大,呈显著上升趋势。Belg季节平均发病时间为3月第1个10年,停止日期为5月第2个10年;Kiremt季节平均发病时间为6月第1个10年,停止日期为9月第2个10年。观测到的气温变暖和降雨波动是近几十年来全球气候变化对该地区的影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Analysis of Trend and Variability of Climate of Hawassa Based on Surface Observations
Precipitation and temperature are the main determinants of climate change and variability of one’s area. Their change can be disruptive to the normal hydrological processes which plays an important role in agricultural and non-agricultural operations activities. This study is to determine climatology, trends, onset and retreat of rainy seasons and variation in temperature and precipitation by statistical and Mann Kendall test methods at Hawassa station for the period of 1973-2018. The increasing trend of minimum and maximum temperature were detected to be 0.05 and 0.04°C with high coefficient of determination (R 2 = 0.63 and 0.66), respectively. Besides, annual rainfall showed a coefficient of variation 15.2% with mean and standard deviation 965.3mm and 146.5, respectively. Seasonally, Belg season showed higher variability with statistical significant an increasing trend. And also the mean onset Belg season was identified as in the 1 st decade of March and cessation date was in the 2 nd decade of May, and Kiremt season mean onset was after 1 st decade of June and cessation in the 2nd decade of September. The observed warming temperature and fluctuation of rainfall are impacts of global climate change during the last decades in the area.
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