互联网新闻辅助评估中国房地产市场

Yue Wang, Beibei Lin, Tianmei Wang, Haifeng Li, Yuejin Zhang, Zhigang Zhang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在过去的十年里,中国的住房(房地产)市场快速发展,许多研究人员试图分析住房经济并提出控制措施。在这项工作中,我们从2001-2011年新浪互联网新闻的新视角来评估中国房地产市场。我们将我们的结果与重大历史事件和经济数据进行比较,我们也根据新闻研究人们的意见。我们的主要观察结果如下。首先,从新浪新闻评估的市场状况与历史事件和经济数据有很大的相关性。第二,民众的期望与政府的态度基本一致。第三,价格上涨预期和价格下跌预期在数量上具有可比性。这可以从心理上解释为什么中国的房地产市场虽然人们认为价格高,但总体上是繁荣的。我们的研究表明,我们的社会应该继续在经济和政治上采取措施,改变人们因预期房价很快会上涨而急于购买房屋的想法,从而为市场降温。此外,本研究还提供了一个例子,说明我们可以从可信网站的信息中得出可信的市场评估。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Internet News Aided Evaluation of China's Housing Market
China's housing (real estate) market is booming fast in the past decade and many researchers try to analyze the housing economy and propose measures to put it under control. In this work, we evaluate China's housing market from a novel view of Internet news of Sina in 2001-2011. We compare our results with the major historical events and economic data, and we also study peoples' opinions based on the news. Our main observations are as follows. First, the market condition evaluated from Sina news is quite correlated to that of historical events and economic data. Second, peoples' expectations are basically in accordance with government attitudes. Third, the expectations of price rising and falling are comparable in amount. It can explain psychologically why China's housing market is booming on the whole although people think the price is high. Our work may suggest that our society should continue to take steps economically and politically to change peoples' mind from buying houses eagerly with the expectation of price rising soon so as to cool the market. Besides, this work shows an example that we can derive faithful market evaluations from the information of trustable websites.
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