重新审视中国的气候政策

A. Mori, Mika Takehara
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摘要

在遇到多边气候治理的出现时,中国表现出敌对姿态,反对有义务减少温室气体排放。然而,中国逐渐改变了立场,接受非强制性的碳强度减排,并积极主动地进行减排。与此同时,中国实施了一系列气候政策措施。在此背景下,本章旨在通过回顾中国政府为解决气候-能源难题所采取的政策过程和政策结果,探讨是什么使其敌对立场转变为积极态度,讨论政策结果的有效性以及通过加强结果将产生的逻辑后果。研究结果可以总结如下。首先,中国的气候政策一直以能源发展战略为中心,因此被框定为能源政策。但具体的政策措施考虑到了地方政府和国有石油公司的既得利益、政府创造新增长点的愿望、健康担忧等因素,并进行了调整,使其具有现实性和有效性。其次,由此产生的气候能源政策引发了省级政府、国有石油公司和分布式能源生产商之间的利益冲突,阻碍了能源结构变化的加速,并削弱了二氧化碳减排的结构性效应。这种国内利益冲突使政府的重心转向煤炭和水电产业的“走出去”,这可能造成国际上的生计和生态破坏,并将外国的能源基础设施系统引向高二氧化碳排放的道路。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Revisiting China’s climate policy
When encountered the emergence of the multilateral climate governance, China showed hostile stance, opposing against have obligation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, it has gradually changed the stance to accept a non-obligatory reduction of carbon intensity, and to be proactive in the reduction. Meantime, it has implemented a number of climate policy measures. Against this backdrop, this chapter aims to explore what changed its hostile stance toward proactive one through a revisit to the policy process and policy outcomes that the Chinese government has taken to address the climate-energy conundrum, discussing the effectiveness of the policy outcome and logical consequences that will cause by enhancing the outcome. The findings can be summarized as follows. First, China’s climate policy has been centered on energy development strategy, thus framed as energy policy. However, detailed policy measures have been adjusted to incorporate vested interests of local governments and national oil companies (NOCs), government desire to create new growth point, and emerging heath concerns into account to make it realistic and effective. Second, the resultant climate-energy policy provokes conflicts of interests among provincial governments, NOCs and distributed energy producers, which blocks changes in energy mix from accelerating, and impairing the structural effect in CO 2 emission reduction. Such domestic conflicts of interests is shifting the government focus toward “going global” of coal and hydropower industries, which can cause international disruption of livelihood and ecology, and directs the energy infrastructure system of foreign countries toward a high CO 2 emission pathway.
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