Power Imbalance Drivers and Reliability Targets for Dynamic Control Reserves of a Philippine Grid

Amid a constant influx of variable renewable energy (VRE) generation, frequency control ancillary service (FCAS) or reserve requirements must be adequately sized for the reliable operation of power systems. As the Philippine grids anticipate a transition to new FCAS classifications introduced in the Philippine Grid Code, research on reserve sizing in the Philippines is particularly timely and relevant. A dynamic probabilistic method has been proposed to calculate the hourly total frequency control reserve, which is the total of the secondary and tertiary reserve requirements. In this work, historical operations data of the Visayas grid were used to determine the relative contributions of load and VRE errors to the reserve requirements and to explore the effect of varying the reliability target on the frequency control reserve requirement. In terms of magnitude, load forecast errors remain to be the dominant driver of power imbalance. Increasing the reliability target will also determine higher levels of reserves.