全球不确定性的不对称效应:发展中国家的社会经济和环境脆弱性

C. Nguyen, C. Schinckus, Thanh Dinh Su
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引用次数: 3

摘要

本研究旨在探讨全球不确定性指标波动对54个发展中国家国内社会经济和环境脆弱性的影响。设计/方法/方法采用两步系统广义矩估计方法处理动态面板数据中的自回归和内生性问题。七个不同的全球不确定性指标(美国贸易不确定性;世界贸易的不确定性;经济政策的不确定性;世界商品和石油价格;地缘政治风险指数和世界不确定性指数)对各国经济(增长和GDP)、社会(痛苦指数和收入不平等)和环境(二氧化碳排放)脆弱性的实证影响进行了动员和比较。实证估计表明,社会经济和环境脆弱性不可能通过相同的模式得到解决:某一特定方面的所有减少都必然会对国家脆弱性的至少一个其他方面产生成本和相反的影响。本文的独创性在于将脆弱性的这三个维度结合在同一个调查中。据我们所知,我们的研究是为数不多的对全球不确定性对经济和社会环境国家脆弱性的影响进行联合分析的研究之一——鉴于社会、经济和环境方面是联合国可持续目标的核心,我们的研究可以被视为对各国在一个日益不确定的世界中积极努力实现有意义的可持续目标的能力的调查。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Asymmetric effects of global uncertainty: the socioeconomic and environmental vulnerability of developing countries
PurposeThis study aims to investigate the influences of global uncertainty indicators volatility on the domestic socioeconomic and environmental vulnerability in a sample of 54 developing countries.Design/methodology/approachThe two-step system generalized method of moments estimator is recruited to deal with autoregression and endogeneity matter in our dynamic panel data. Seven different global uncertainty indicators (US trade uncertainty; world trade uncertainty; economic policy uncertainty; world commodities and oil prices; the geopolitical risk index and the world uncertainty index) have been mobilized and compared for their empirical impact on the economic (growth and GDP), social (the misery index and income inequality) and environmental (CO2 emissions) vulnerabilities of nations.FindingsOur empirical estimations suggest that the socioeconomic and environmental vulnerability cannot be solved through the same pattern: all decrease of a particular aspect will necessarily have a cost and an opposite influence on at least one of the other aspects of the nations' vulnerability.Originality/valueThe originality of this article is to combine these three dimensions of vulnerability in the same investigation. To our knowledge, our research is one of the few providing a joint analysis of the influence of global uncertainty on the economic and socioenvironmental countries' vulnerabilities – given the fact social, economic and environmental aspects are at the heart of the UN sustainable goals, our study can be seen as an investigation of the nations' capabilities to work proactively on meaningful sustainable goals in an increasingly uncertain world.
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