分析2018-2019年关税对全球相连的美国制造业的影响

Aaron B. Flaaen, Justin Pierce
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引用次数: 73

摘要

自2018年初以来,美国采取了前所未有的关税提高措施,这些行动的一个目标是提振制造业。在本文中,我们估计了关税——包括美国贸易伙伴的报复性关税——对制造业就业、产出和生产者价格的影响。我们分析的一个关键特征是考虑到关税可能影响制造业的多种方式,包括为国内产业提供保护,提高进口投入的成本,以及由于报复性关税而损害海外市场的竞争力。我们发现,由于进口保护的积极影响被投入成本上升和报复性关税带来的更大负面影响所抵消,更容易受到关税增加影响的美国制造业的就业相对减少。更高的关税还与投入成本上升导致的生产者价格相对上涨有关。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Disentangling the Effects of the 2018-2019 Tariffs on a Globally Connected U.S. Manufacturing Sector
Since the beginning of 2018, the United States has undertaken unprecedented tariff increases, with one goal of these actions being to boost the manufacturing sector. In this paper, we estimate the effect of the tariffs---including retaliatory tariffs by U.S. trading partners---on manufacturing employment, output, and producer prices. A key feature of our analysis is accounting for the multiple ways that tariffs might affect the manufacturing sector, including providing protection for domestic industries, raising costs for imported inputs, and harming competitiveness in overseas markets due to retaliatory tariffs. We find that U.S. manufacturing industries more exposed to tariff increases experience relative reductions in employment as a positive effect from import protection is offset by larger negative effects from rising input costs and retaliatory tariffs. Higher tariffs are also associated with relative increases in producer prices via rising input costs.
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