博科圣地会对欧洲安全构成威胁吗?

G. Sinkó, Tibor Babos
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摘要

在这项研究中,作者试图解决博科圣地是否会对欧洲安全构成威胁的问题。要回答这个问题,必须分析最近尼日利亚移民到意大利的模式、实际报告、同行评议的学术著作、各种地区期刊和媒体文章。通过评估所有可用的研究来源,可以得出结论,答案并不像人们第一眼看到的那样明确。一方面,我们可以说,像博科圣地这样的恐怖组织不可能构成严重的欧洲安全威胁,因为大多数抵达欧洲的尼日利亚人似乎是出于经济、社会和安全原因决定逃离原籍国的,因此,这些移民与恐怖主义没有任何关系。另一方面,我们也可以说,博科圣地可以利用移民流动,把自己的士兵安插进去,从而在其中建立恐怖主义组织,从而对欧洲安全构成威胁。我们发现了大量证据,表明该恐怖组织越来越多地将女性作为软目标,并有可能使欧洲受创伤的儿童重新激进化。自2015年与伊斯兰国结盟以来,人们越来越担心博科圣地可能会效仿伊斯兰国,把重点放在难民身上,渗透到移民流动中,从而给欧洲带来重大安全风险。然而,近年来抵达欧洲的尼日利亚移民数量一直在减少,这可能是由于非洲和欧洲政府之间的联系更加紧密,以及欧洲加强了控制。如果这种持续的合作以及严格的欧洲内部边境安全和警察程序得以保持,博科圣地对欧洲安全构成威胁的机会就会减少。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Can Boko Haram Constitute a Threat to European Security?
In this study, the authors seek to address the question whether Boko Haram can constitute a threat to European security. Toanswer this question, one mustanalyse recent Nigerian migration patterns to Italy, actual reports, peer-reviewed academic works, a wide variety of regional journals and media articles. By evaluating all available research sources, it can be concluded that the answer is not as clear-cut as one might thinkat first glance. On the one hand, we could argue that a terrorist group like Boko Haram cannot constitute a serious European security threat, since the majority of Nigerians arriving in Europe seems to have decided to flee their country of origin due to economic, social and security reasons, therefore, these migrants have nothing to do with terrorism. On the other hand, we could also argue that Boko Haram can pose a threat to European security, by taking advantage of migration flows and inserting its own soldiers, thus creating terrorist cells within them. We have found plenty of evidences related to the terrorist organisation’s increased use of women as soft targets and the potential re-radicalisation of traumatised children in Europe. Since its alignment with ISIL in 2015, there has been growing concern that Boko Haram could follow suit with focusing its efforts on refugees, infiltrating migration flows and thereby creating a significant security risk to Europe. However, in recent years the number of Nigerian migrants arriving in Europe has been decreasing, which could be justified by tighter links between African and European governments and by stronger European control. If this continuous cooperation and tight internal European border security andpolice procedures are to remain, there is less chance for Boko Haram to constitute a threat to European security.
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