基于时间序列分析的绿色建筑能耗预测改进模型

Shirui Xiao
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引用次数: 0

摘要

可再生能源的开发和推广是必要的。可再生能源技术在建筑中的应用是一个重要的研究方向。而这一方向的可再生能源消费预测是一个必不可少的研究内容。鉴于此,提出了一种基于时间序列分析和支持向量机(SVM)的建筑可再生能源能耗预测模型。该模型的性能测试表明,其在训练集中的损失值低至1.5%,在测试集中的损失值为4.1%。此外,在神经网络精度测试中,其准确率最高达到95.5%,明显高于传统算法的比较。关于模型的整体能耗预测能力,实验结果表明,能耗预测模型的最低误差为2.3%,传统SVM模型在相同数据集上的平均相对误差为6.8%,混沌时间序列模型的平均相对误差为4.1%。与目前使用的传统模型相比,该能耗预测模型的预测能力有了很大的提高,具有实际应用的潜力。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A novel improved model for green building energy consumption prediction based on time-series analysis
The development and popularization of renewable energy is necessary. The application of renewable energy technology in buildings is an important research direction. And the prediction of renewable energy consumption in this direction is an essential research content. In view of this, a buildings energy consumption prediction model of renewable energy based on time-series analysis and Support Vector Machine (SVM) is proposed. The performance test of this model shows that its loss value is as low as 1.5% in training set, and the loss value is 4.1% in test set. In addition, it shows the highest accuracy rate of 95.5% in the neural network accuracy test, which is significantly higher than the comparison of traditional algorithms. About the overall energy consumption prediction ability of the model, the experimental results showed that the lowest error of the energy consumption prediction model was 2.3%, the average relative error of the traditional SVM model in the same data set was 6.8%, and the chaotic time-series model was 4.1%. Compared with the traditional models currently used, the prediction ability of the energy consumption prediction model had been greatly improved, and it had the potential to be put into practical application.
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