The SIUQRD and Matern 5/2 GPR Models describing the Covid-19 Pandemic in India

In this study an SIUQRD model for the Corona Virus pandemic in India has been discussed, the Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) have been fitted and the parameters have been estimated for the two successive waves that affected the country. The data has been taken from 30/01/2020 to 12/02/2021 for fitting the first wave and 13/02/2021 to 18/06/2021 for fitting the second wave. The value has been calculated for a span of 14 days towards the end of the second wave in absence of original data to analyze the pandemic situation for the next two weeks (19th June to 2nd July). Upon fitting the data for the two waves, the required model parameters are estimated. The study has further been extended to predict the number of cases for the same time period (19th June to 2nd July) using a machine learning model – Matern 5/2 GPR with satisfactory performance metrics. Finally, the original data during the two weeks is compared with the data predicted by the Matern 5/2 GPR model to check the performance of the model. This Matern 5/2 GPR model, to the best of our knowledge is being applied to predict the COVID-19 pandemic for the first time in India.