Towards a more circular biobased economy and nutrient use on Gotland: finding suitable locations for biogas plants

In this study we have investigated the role of biogas solutions to support increased resource efficiency on the island Gotland, including recovery and redistribution of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) within the agricultural sector. First, we analyzed the potential for expanding energy and nutrient recovery from organic residues using biogas solutions. Our findings suggest that the biogas production could expand to 165 GWh, from the current 36 GWh (2020), with manure accounting for a potential 110 GWh biogas annually if all were digested. Comparing the nutrients contained in organic feedstock with the crop nutrient demand on Gotland showed that for N the demand is 2.4 times higher than the supply. In contrast, the calculations showed a 137 tonnes P surplus, with distinct excess areas in the center and southern part of the island. We then compared scenarios with different numbers (3 - 15) of biogas plants with respect to efficient nutrient redistribution and transport costs. Spatial constraints for new plants, e.g. need for roads with a certain capacity and permit issues, were accounted for by adding local information to a national data set. We identified 104 potential locations (1 km$^2$ grid cells) and used an optimization model to identify the most suitable locations for minimized transport costs. Optimal (meeting the crop demand with no excess) redistribution of all nutrients contained in the feedstock, as raw digestate from biogas plants, would result in an export of 127 tonnes of P from the island. The model results indicated that if all potential feedstock would be digested in three additional biogas plants and nutrients redistributed for optimal reuse, the total transport cost would be 2.6 million SEK annually, excluding the costs for nutrient export from the island (3.7 million SEK). If instead 10 or 15 smaller plants would be built, the transport cost would drop to 1.8 million SEK, with the same amount of P being exported. Comparing the scenarios with different number of biogas plants (3 - 15), showed that some locations are more suitable than others in terms of distance to feedstock and to fields with fertilizer demands. Finally, a preliminary analysis of the amount of crop residues indicated that this type of feedstock could add a substantial amount of biogas production, but more extensive analyses are needed to assess the feasibility to realize part of that potential.