Solar resources' potential role in the development of renewable based electric power system by 2050: The case of Pakistan prospects of solar in Pakistan

Pakistan's solar resources are among the best with daily average up to 7.5 kW/m2. Factors like photovoltaic technological developments, cost reduction, ease of grid integration etc. made it a viable option for power generation. Pakistan existing electric system is highly dependent on imported fossil, especially oil. As indigenous resource, most expectations are from Thar's lignite resources to fulfill country future energy requirements. But due to coal low quality and high overburden to coal ratio, the option is not economical with current prices. In addition, huge financial requirements are also hurdles to initiate the exploration even after passing more than 20 years of its discovery. Efforts have been made in this paper to assess possible role of renewable in general and solar resources particular, in Pakistan's future electric system. For this purpose, the country electricity demand has been forecasted till 2050. To account for infrastructure requirements the country has been divided into 17 sub-regions. A case of supply has been considered where demand is fulfilled only by renewable generation. The system has been simulated using CPRESS1 at time scale of “hour” to incorporate the intermittency of renewables. From analysis, it is found that more than 85% of total forecasted 587 TWh electricity demand can be fulfilled with renewable by maintaining strict utilization factor. In total supply system, a contribution of 25-30% comes from solar resources. The value of 100% renewable supply is also achievable either to increase biomass potential and/or making compromise on the economics of solar by relaxing its utilization factor. The solar resources served major part of pumping load's demand, therefore their contribution toward system stability and facilitating wind integration is also noteworthy