重新审视能源经济学的杰文斯悖论:来自孟加拉国和印度的经验证据

Muntasir Murshed
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引用次数: 3

摘要

在任何经济体中,提高能源消费以提高各自国民产出水平的重要性是不可否认的。此外,联合国2030年可持续发展议程还呼吁通过采用可再生能源技术来提高能源使用效率,其最终目标是实现全球能源供应的可持续性。提高相关的效率水平的理由是,这样做可以减少能源消耗水平,这也将补充直接节约能源政策。但是,在能源使用效率和能源消耗之间的确切关系方面,一直存在着不明确的问题。本文的目的是在两个南亚中低收入国家孟加拉国和印度的背景下阐明能源效率与能源消耗之间的关系。该研究通过将能源消耗分解为一次能源消耗和二次能源消耗,并将它们分别表示为能源利用效率和其他控制变量的单独函数,对“杰文斯悖论”进行了新颖的尝试。本研究考虑了1990年至2016年的年度数据,并采用固定效应(FE)、随机效应(RE)和三阶段最小二乘(3SLS)面板回归工具进行稳健性检验。此外,本文还利用格兰杰因果检验分析了长期因果关系。根据估计的结果,在不可再生能源、电力和煤炭消费的背景下发现了杰文斯悖论的证据。此外,没有发现存在长期因果关系。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Revisiting the Jevons Paradox of Energy Economics: Empirical Evidence from Bangladesh and India
The significance of enhancement in energy consumption in order to boost the respective national output level within any economy cannot be denied. Moreover, the United Nation’s 2030 Sustainable Development agenda had also called for an improvement in efficiency of energy-use through the adoption of renewable energy technologies in particular, with the ultimate goal of attaining sustainability in global energy supply. The rationale behind escalating the associated efficiency levels is that by doing so the level of energy consumption can be reduced which would complement the direct energy conservation policies as well. However, there has been ambiguity with regard to the precise relationship between efficiency in use and consumption of energy. The aim of this paper is to shed light on the energy efficiency-energy consumption nexus in context of the two South Asian Lower Middle-Income Countries, Bangladesh and India. The study makes a novel attempt at investigating the ‘Jevons Paradox’ by disaggregating energy consumption into primary and secondary energy consumption and by expressing each of these as separate functions of energy-use efficiency and other control variables. This study considers annual data stemming from 1990 to 2016 and employs Fixed Effects (FE), Random Effects (RE) and Three-Stage Least Squares (3SLS) panel regression tools for robustness check. Furthermore, the paper also analyses the long run causal linkages using the Granger causality tests. In light of the estimated results, evidence of a Jevons paradox is found in the context of non-renewable energy, electricity and coal consumption. In addition, no long-run causal association is found to exist.
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