PREDICTING THE EFFECTS OF THE DIDACTIC PROCESS USING FORGETTING CURVES

The paper presents the method of predicting the effects of the didactic process using the forgetting curves. In the didactic process, learning and forgetting processes play an important role. The learning time, the number of repetitions and their distribution over time are important. These issues can be analyzed using a deterministic description. The flow of information and the learning process can be described thanks to the educational environment developed by the author, enabling the creation of a model of the didactic process described by differential equations. The differential equations can be represented in the form of a network of connected elements in a similar way to the electrical circuits and represented in the form of an intuitive schematic. The network can be simulated using a microsystem simulator. The use of the microsystems simulator enables simulation of the didactic process in time and prediction of effects also after its completion in the long-term. It also enables prediction of the repetitions also during the didactic process. The presented approach enables the easy creation of the macro models and enables the use of many advanced simulation algorithms. The examples of simulations of the didactic process based on the real data are included. Short and long-term simulations for individual students and groups of students are presented. An example of the prediction of the optimal repetitions is shown. Based on the results, appropriate conclusions were drawn. The issues discussed in the work may be of interest to those involved in the analysis and mathematical description of the didactic process. They can also be interesting for developers of the e-learning systems especially e-learning platforms.