阿拉斯加OCS石油泄漏发生概率

F. Bercha, R. Prentki, Caryn Smith
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摘要

在对美国楚科奇海和波弗特海的假想发展进行环境评估时,使用了溢油事件的概率估计。由于该地区的海上石油开发有限,因此无法根据该地区的经验数据进行溢油概率估计。相反,来自美国墨西哥湾和世界范围的非北极地区的统计显著经验数据及其方差被用作起点。接下来,修改历史非北极频率分布和泄漏因果分布,以反映北极环境的具体影响,并使用蒙特卡罗模拟评估所得到的故障树模型,以充分表征作为故障树概率分布输入的不确定性。针对2000年至2006年间的连续租赁销售场景,开展了一系列研究,旨在开发和应用故障树方法。此外,还进行了一项专门针对更新GOM数据的研究。这一系列研究包括五个波弗特海和/或楚科奇海应用研究和墨西哥湾数据更新研究。本报告总结了该方法,并给出了其应用于估计Chukchi和Beaufort海地区溢油概率及其特征的结果,该研究基于2006年的最新研究和统计数据,正在进行的研究将纳入OCS到2010年的数据,并将捕获包括Macondo井在内的井控频率损失。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Alaska OCS Oil Spill Occurrence Probabilities
Probabilistic estimates of oil spill occurrences are used in the development of environmental assessments for hypothetical developments in the US Chukchi and Beaufort Seas. Due to the limited offshore oil development in this region, it was not possible to base these oil spill probability estimates on empirical data from that region. Rather, statistically significant non-Arctic empirical data from the US Gulf of Mexico (GOM) and world-wide sources, together with their variance, were used as a starting point. Next, both the historical non- Arctic frequency distributions and spill causal distributions were modified to reflect specific effects of the Arctic setting, and the resultant fault tree model was evaluated using Monte Carlo simulation to adequately characterize uncertainties treated as probability distribution inputs to the fault tree. A series of studies, associated with successive lease sale scenarios between 2000 and 2006, was carried out directed at developing and applying the fault tree methodology. In addition, a study directed solely at updating the GOM data was carried out. The series of studies consisted of five Beaufort Sea and/or Chukchi Sea application studies and the GOM data update studies. This report summarizes the methodology and gives results of its application to the estimation of oil spill probabilities and their characteristics for the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas region based on the most recent studies and statistics through 2006 Ongoing studies will incorporate OCS data through 2010 and will capture the loss of well control frequencies including the Macondo well.
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