Dropout in distance learning: a reference model for an integrated alert system

Distance education has expanded over the past two decades. Parallel to this expansion, the high dropout rate of undergraduates has been a cause of concern for education administrators and researchers. The reference model for an integrated alert system is an approach to predict student dropout over the graduation period. The model has in its structure two sets of main and comprehensive elements that are theorized to be causal and sequential. (1) element focuses primarily on the predictive factors predating and postadmission of undergraduate students and (2) element focuses on the instabilities of predictor factors, in the processes of re-evaluations 1: detachment and re-evaluations 2: withdrawal, in the intentions of leaving and on student's avoidance / permanence.