基于Bass模型的移动业务前景预测方法

Huan-huai Zhou, Qi Ruan
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摘要

移动商务作为一种创新的电子商务模式,在不久的将来必将成为一个诱人的产业。本文利用“SPSS”软件提供的非线性最小二乘法和累计上网网民的统计数据,对“BASS”扩散模型中的关键参数进行了估计,从而对手机上网用户规模进行了近似预测。此外,本文还详细分析了在扩散过程中起积极作用的因素。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A Forecast Method of Mobile Business Prospect Based on Bass Model
As an innovative e-commerce model, mobile business will definitely turn into an alluring industry in the near future. By using the statistics of the accumulative cellphone-on-line surfing netizen and the nonlinear least squares method which is offered by the “SPSS” software, the authors of this paper try to estimate the critical parameters in the “BASS” diffusion model and thus make an approximate forecast of the cellphone-on-line users scale. Furthermore, in this paper, the authors also make a detailed analysis of the factors which play an active role in the diffusion process.
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