Predicting New Product Success with Prediction Markets in Online Communities

The prediction of new product success is still a challenging task. Traditional market research tools are expensive, time consuming, and error prone. Prediction markets have been introduced as a viable alternative. Utilizing inputs from various participants in game‐like environments, they have been shown to produce accurate results by combining dispersed knowledge via market‐based aggregation mechanisms. While most previous studies use employees or experts as a sample, we test whether online consumer communities can be used to predict the sale of new skis via prediction markets. Sixty‐two users took part in the study. The prediction market was open for 12 days before the main skiing season 2010/2011 began. The outcomes of the prediction markets were compared with the actual sales numbers provided by the ski producers. The mean average errors were between 2.74% and 9.09% in the four markets. Overall, it can be concluded that the prediction markets based on consumer communities produce accurate results.