探索非洲生物能源的低碳发展潜力

Ismail Abubakar Jumare, L. Mofor, Mekalia Paulos, Ralid Ajabboune
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摘要

由于能源需求持续增长和气候变化的挑战,清洁和改善能源获取是非洲大陆乃至全球的首要任务。人口指数增长引起的能源需求的持续增长对电力的影响尤其严重,因为它对几乎所有经济部门的影响都成倍增加。本文试图探索生物能源对非洲低碳发展的潜力。在此过程中,对非洲大陆的发电情况进行了审查,分析了通过高效利用木质纤维素生物质资源潜力来扩大电力供应组合的机会,并以同样的方式,为了环境问题和利益而降低消耗矿物燃料的消耗。手工分析,以及应用ms EXCEL预测和RETSCREEN基线思想的结合。结果很明显,在2014年的基线电力评估中,减少50%的化石燃料使用量,并将90%的已开发的木质纤维素基生物质资源用于生物发电,将确保电力增长79.9%,同时温室气体排放减少1.71亿吨。此外,根据对2030年电力预测情景的分析,在减少25%的化石燃料和增加90%的总生物质资源的基础上,电力增加43.46%,温室气体排放减少1.94亿吨。因此,显而易见的事实是,非洲很幸运,拥有巨大的未开发的生物质资源,如所提议的那样,适当的政策将以可持续的方式充分利用这些资源,这将为改变非洲大陆能源短缺的情况提供更好的空间,特别是因为它涉及到电力部门,这是一个最受关注的领域,具有倍增的影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Exploring Africa's Potentials of Biopower for Low Carbon Development
Clean and Improved energy access is the topmost priority in the African continent and the globe at large due to persistent energy demand rise and the challenge of climate change. The persistent increase in the energy demand arising from population exponential growth is particular more severe on electricity as more fundamental due to its multiplying impact on virtually all sectors of economy. This paper tries to explore the potentialities of Biopower for Africa’s low carbon development. In doing so, the review of the electricity generation has been done for the continent with the analyzed chances of scaling up the power supply mix by high and efficient utilization of the lignocellulose biomass resource potentials for biopower, and in the same manner, lowering the depleting fossil fuel consumption for environmental concerns and benefits. Manual analyses were done as well as applying M.S EXCEL forecasting and also the incorporation of RETSCREEN Baselines thoughts. The result is obvious on the fact that for the 2014 baseline power assessment, a 50% reduction of fossil fuel uptake and incorporation of 90% of the explored total lignocellulose-based biomass resources for bio-power will ensure electricity increase by 79.9% with a high greenhouse gas emission savings of 171MT. Moreover, on basing the analyses to 2030 power projection scenario showed an electricity increase by 43.46% with the greenhouse gas emission savings of 194MT based on 25% reduction of fossil fuels with addition of 90% of total biomass resource. Therefore, this is obvious to the fact that Africa is fortunate with huge un-tapped Biomass resource of which having appropriate policies in place for their full utilization in a sustainable way as proposed, will give a better room for changing the story-line of energy deficit in the continent particularly as it relates to power sector being an area of most concern with multiplying impacts.
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