{"title":"Pari - Mutuel投注中的盈利机器人策略","authors":"Petter Bjerksund, G. Stensland","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2948308","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"We have collected odds and results from 7 474 horse races in Norway and Sweden for a period of approximately 1.5 years. Based on the odds from the win game, we construct a profitable betting strategy for the corresponding triple game. Given a 30% track take, the existence of a profitable strategy is surprising. A robot is typically needed to identify and exploit underrated bets. We argue that the existence of heterogeneous beliefs between players in the market might form a basis for profitable betting strategies. We did expect that bigger pools (more liquidity) would remove this anomaly. That is not the case. More players, and thereby bigger pools, increases the profitability of the system.","PeriodicalId":393761,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Game Theory & Bargaining Theory (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2017-04-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Profitable Robot Strategies in Pari‐Mutuel Betting\",\"authors\":\"Petter Bjerksund, G. Stensland\",\"doi\":\"10.2139/SSRN.2948308\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"We have collected odds and results from 7 474 horse races in Norway and Sweden for a period of approximately 1.5 years. Based on the odds from the win game, we construct a profitable betting strategy for the corresponding triple game. Given a 30% track take, the existence of a profitable strategy is surprising. A robot is typically needed to identify and exploit underrated bets. We argue that the existence of heterogeneous beliefs between players in the market might form a basis for profitable betting strategies. We did expect that bigger pools (more liquidity) would remove this anomaly. That is not the case. More players, and thereby bigger pools, increases the profitability of the system.\",\"PeriodicalId\":393761,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"ERN: Other Game Theory & Bargaining Theory (Topic)\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2017-04-07\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"1\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"ERN: Other Game Theory & Bargaining Theory (Topic)\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2948308\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"ERN: Other Game Theory & Bargaining Theory (Topic)","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2948308","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Profitable Robot Strategies in Pari‐Mutuel Betting
We have collected odds and results from 7 474 horse races in Norway and Sweden for a period of approximately 1.5 years. Based on the odds from the win game, we construct a profitable betting strategy for the corresponding triple game. Given a 30% track take, the existence of a profitable strategy is surprising. A robot is typically needed to identify and exploit underrated bets. We argue that the existence of heterogeneous beliefs between players in the market might form a basis for profitable betting strategies. We did expect that bigger pools (more liquidity) would remove this anomaly. That is not the case. More players, and thereby bigger pools, increases the profitability of the system.