Judicial Errors, Crime Deterrence and Appeals: Evidence from U.S. Federal Courts

This paper seeks to empirically examine how the accuracy of a multi-tier adjudication system affects crime deterrence. An ongoing scholarly debate regarding the effects of judicial errors on deterrence provides mixed arguments, but the role of a multi-tier system - where errors can be corrected on appeal - has been mostly overlooked. Analyzing appeal results from U.S federal courts and corresponding crime rates, I find that error occurrence, reflected by affirmance rates, decreases deterrence. Error correction, conversely, entails a complex effect: reversals increase deterrence, but remands decrease deterrence; which implies a need for theoretical adjustment and judicial caution.