投射想象力:全球和企业未来的创造性故事

D. Mckie, Tom Cockburn
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在考虑未来愿景和公共关系时,我们将这些推测定位为富有想象力的艺术,而不是精确的科学,并在两个关键文献中远离主流方法。首先,关于领导力文献,虽然承认它对未来愿景的重要性做出了贡献,但我们与这种预测是领导力的有限领域的观点保持距离。相反,我们通过扩展罗斯特关于20世纪和21世纪范式之间的鸿沟的概念化来展示它们对公共关系的重要性,以支持在不确定和动荡的时代为变革做准备时情景的有用性。其次,在公共关系教育方面,我们摒弃了对21世纪更为量化和一切照旧的美式预测。在做出这些偏离时,我们借鉴了其他未来主义著作,特别是情景理论和实践,主张公共关系,无论是作为一种实践还是作为一个理论体系,都需要对现有的预测有更多的了解,并更多地参与其中。最后,我们建议情景成为准备公共关系的一个可接受的部分,以应对非线性的、不寻常的业务复杂性的未来预测,而这些预测在该领域当前的思想中没有得到解决。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Projecting Imagination: Creative Tales of Global and Corporate Futures
In considering future visions and public relations, we position such speculations as imaginative art rather than exact science and move away from dominant approaches in two key literatures. Firstly, in relation to leadership literature, while acknowledging the contribution it has made to the importance of future vision, we distance ourselves from the view that such projections are the restricted domain of leadership. Instead we show how they matter to public relations by extending Rost’s conceptualization of a divide between twentieth and twenty-first century paradigms to support the usefulness of scenarios in preparing for change in uncertain and turbulent times. Secondly, in relation to public relations education, we move away from the more quantitative and business-as-usual US style forecasts for the 21st Century. In making these departures we draw from other futurist writings, especially scenario theory and practice, to contend that public relations, both as a practice and as a body of theory, needs to be more knowledgeable about, and more involved in, existing projections. We conclude by recommending that scenarios become an accepted part of preparing public relations for the nonlinear, complexity of business-as-unusual future predictions not addressed in the field’s current thinking.
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