风电场与蓄电联运日常运行中的风电预测不确定性

H. Keko, M. D. da Rosa, J. Sumaili, Vladimiro Miranda
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引用次数: 4

摘要

不可避免的风力预测误差导致预测和观测到的风力存在差异。为了减轻其经济影响,可以将风力发电与抽水蓄能相结合。为了提供风力发电厂与储能相结合的联合运营策略,需要可靠的风力预测。预测通常只包含每个前瞻性时间的单值预测(点预测)。但是,可能需要关于预报不确定性的额外代表性信息。本文讨论了不确定性表示对风电场联合抽水蓄能电站日常运行的影响。本文说明了不确定性表示,如高斯不相关误差也可能不令人满意。基于一个风力发电厂与抽水蓄能相结合的案例研究,为了说明目的,本文论证了需要有不确定性表示,包括跨期依赖关系,以定义正确的运行策略。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Wind power forecast uncertainty in daily operation of wind park combined with storage
The inevitable wind power forecast errors result in differences between forecasted and observed wind power. To mitigate their economic impact, combining the wind power with pumped hydro energy storage may be used. In order to deliver a joint operational strategy for a wind power plant combined with storage, one requires reliable wind power forecasts. The forecasts commonly only consist of a single-value forecast (point forecast) for each look-ahead time. However, additional representative information concerning the forecast uncertainty may be required. In this paper, the influence of uncertainty representation daily operation for a wind power plant combined with pumped hydro storage is discussed. The paper illustrates how uncertainty representations such as Gaussian uncorrelated errors may also not be satisfactory. Based on a case study with a wind power plant combined with pumped hydro storage, organized for illustrative purposes, the paper demonstrates the need to have uncertainty representation including cross-period dependencies, in order to define a correct operation policy.
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