阿贝地区社会经济指标的发展水平:方法与分析

A. Kredina, Leila K. Mardenova, A. Tsoy
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摘要

这项描述性工作的目的是在微观一级研究哈萨克斯坦阿拜地区的社会人口指标。文献审查强调了人口动态、教育、保健和国内移徙对该区域和该国可持续发展的重要性。本研究还对所选指标的几个方面采用了模糊集法。2010-2020年的二级数据来自于一个开放的来源——国家统计局,用于确定负面趋势和矛盾。结果表明,在过去10年中,该地区在指标方面出现了消极趋势:高水平的移民、健全人口的短缺、学校数量不变的学龄儿童人数的增加,以及医院组织的消极趋势。别斯卡拉加伊和博罗杜里哈地区的自然人口增长率下降了62%。该地区的学校数量略有减少,而在塞梅(23%)、库尔恰托夫(30%)和亚亚戈兹(1.54%)地区,学校入学率有所增加。在Abay和Kokpekty地区,学校入学人数分别下降了10%和16%。大多数地区的医院病床数量大幅减少(一半地区减少了30%以上)。总的来说,本文有助于更深入地了解阿拜地区的社会人口动态。所得结果可用于各地区有关人口调控和经济发展的政治决策。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Level of Development of the Socio-Economic Indicators of the Abay Region: Methods and Analysis
This descriptive work is aimed at studying at the micro level the socio-demographic indicators of the Abay region of Kazakhstan. The literature review highlights the importance of population dynamics, education, health care and internal migration for sustainable development in the region and in the country. The study also uses the fuzzy set method for several aspects of the selected indicators. Secondary data for 2010-2020 are taken from an open source - the Bureau of National Statistics and were used to identify negative trends and contradictions. The results showed that over the past 10 years there are negative trends in the region in terms of indicators: a high level of emigration, a shortage of able-bodied population, an increase in the number of schoolchildren with a constant number of schools, and a negative trend in hospital organizations. Beskaragai and Borodulikha districts natural population growth decreased by 62 percent. The number of schools in the region has slightly decreased, while in Semey (23%), Kurchatov district (30%) and Ayagoz (1.54%) district there is an increase in school enrollment. In Abay and Kokpekty districts, there is a decrease in the number of schools enrollment (-10% and -16%). The number of hospital beds has decreased significantly in most districts (more than 30 percent in half of the districts). In general, this article contributes to a deeper understanding of the socio-demographic dynamics of the Abai region. The results obtained can be used in making political decisions related to population regulation and economic development in each region. 
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