利用系统动力学在秘鲁库斯科实施灌溉改善项目的生产模型

Mg. Robert Antonio, Romero B. Flores
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引用次数: 2

摘要

秘鲁安第斯山脉灌溉项目执行的改进需要采取多学科方法,主要包括人类学家和工程师的参与。这些项目的可持续性主要由经济利润和组织实力来衡量。由于这些因素的复杂性,在春比维尔卡斯省已经实施的项目的可持续性出现了一些意想不到的影响,生产过剩造成了意想不到的经济衰退现象。为了克服这个问题,开发了一个新的数学模型。在模型的概念化阶段,确定了大约285个变量,并使用系统动力学来执行模型开发所需的仿真。模拟的结果与历史数据进行了比较,显示出它们在生产和最重要的价格决定方面的一致性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Production Model for Irrigation Improvement Projects Implemented in Cusco - Peru Using System Dynamics
The improvements in implementation of irrigation projects in Peruvian Andes needs to give a multidisciplinary approach that involves mainly the participation of anthropologists and engineers. The sustainability of such projects is measured mainly by the economic profit and the organizations strength. Due the complexity of these factors some unexpected effects have appeared for the sustainability of the projects already implemented in the Chumbivilcas province where the overproduction generated an unexpected phenomenon of economic recession. To overcome this problem, a new mathematical model was developed. In the conceptualization phase of the model, approximately 285 variables were identified and system dynamics were used to perform the simulations required for the model developed. The results of the simulation have been compared with historical data showing consistency among themselves in the dimensions of production and price determination among the most importants.
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