尼日利亚的石油价格和股票市场价格

P. Nwosa
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引用次数: 13

摘要

本文考察了1985:1至2010:4期间尼日利亚石油价格(国际石油价格和国内石油价格)与股票市场价格之间的关系。本研究采用约翰森多元协整检验和向量误差修正模型(VECM)。Johansen’s检验表明变量是协整的,协整方程表明油价与股票市场价格在长期内具有显著的关系。从长期来看,VECM估计仅揭示了股票市场价格与国际油价之间的单向因果关系。从长期来看,国内油价与股票市场价格之间也存在单向因果关系。鉴于油价对尼日利亚股市价格的重大影响,该研究建议决策者、金融分析师和股东在财务决策中应认识到国际油价和国内油价的变化。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Oil Prices and Stock Market Price in Nigeria
This paper examined the relationship between oil prices (international oil price and domestic oil price) and stock market price in Nigeria for the period spanning 1985:1 to 2010:4. The study utilised the Johansen's multivariate cointegration test and the vector error correction model (VECM). The Johansen's test showed that the variables are cointegrated, and the cointegration equation revealed that oil prices have significant relationship with stock market price in the long run. The VECM estimate only revealed a unidirectional causality from stock market price to international oil price in the long run. A unidirectional causality was also observed from domestic oil price to stock market price in the long run. The study recommended that policymakers, financial analyst and shareholders should into cognizance changes in international oil price and domestic oil price in their financial decisions given the significant impact of oil prices on stock market price in Nigeria.
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