人民币汇率、流动性过剩对通货膨胀的影响

2011 International Conference on Information Management, Innovation Management and Industrial Engineering Pub Date : 2011-11-26 DOI:10.1109/ICIII.2011.422

D. Xiao

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引用次数: 0

摘要

中国应该考虑用人民币升值来抑制通货膨胀是否合适。本文采用向量自回归模型研究了1996 - 2011年人民币汇率和流动性过剩对通货膨胀的影响。结果表明，人民币升值对通货膨胀有一定的抑制作用，但抑制作用较弱。流动性过剩对通货膨胀有一定的驱动作用，且流动性过剩的驱动作用大于人民币升值对通货膨胀的抑制作用。进一步分析表明，人民币升值背景下产生的流动性过剩导致市场投机炒作行为的出现，从而形成市场通胀预期，最终推动通胀。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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The Influence of RMB Exchange Rate, Excess Liquidity to Inflation

It is important for China to consider whether it is appropriate to curb inflation with RMB appreciation. In this paper, we use the Vector auto regression model to study the influence of RMB exchange rate and excess liquidity to inflation from 1996 to 2011. The results show that RMB appreciation has some inhibiting effect on inflation but the effect is weak. Excess liquidity has some driving effect on inflation, and the driving effect of excess liquidity is greater than the inhibiting effect of RMB appreciation to inflation. Futher analysis shows that the excess liquidity produced in the background of RMB appreciation lead to the apprearance of market speculation and hype behavior, thus form the market inflation expectation, and pushs inflation ultimately.

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2011 International Conference on Information Management, Innovation Management and Industrial Engineering

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