孟加拉国学生运动的威胁:不公正、渗透和政权更迭

David Jackman
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引用次数: 2

摘要

几十年来,孟加拉国的大规模政治动员一直被根深蒂固且经常暴力的政党所垄断。然而,在过去的十年里,反对派一直受到压制,使他们无法发动罢工和抗议,这是该国政治的典型特征。与他们的衰落同时出现的是超越传统政治界限的街头运动的复苏。这些运动是不可预测的,围绕着不公正的问题聚集在一起,尤其是在城市学生中出现。本文考察了2018年主要发生在达卡的公务员配额改革运动和改善道路安全运动。这些运动对执政党构成了两个主要威胁:首先,它们有可能破坏执政党的合法性,并制造一个危机时刻,让反对派可以利用;其次,它们可能加剧执政党维持权力所依赖的利益集团之间的紧张关系。国家对让步和镇压的反应反映了这些威胁,以及在使用胁迫的同时保持合法性的微妙平衡。由于政治运动的丰富历史和缺乏政治表达的替代渠道,应对能够激发此类运动的不满情绪将是执政党保持对权力控制的重要挑战。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Threat of Student Movements in Bangladesh: Injustice, Infiltrators and Regime Change
For decades, large-scale political mobilisation in Bangladesh has been monopolised by deep-rooted and often violent political parties. Over the past decade, however, the opposition has been suppressed, leaving them unable to wage the strikes and protests typical of the country’s politics. Alongside their decline has been a resurgence of street movement beyond conventional political boundaries. These movements are unpredictable, coalesce around issues of injustice, and emerge in particular from urban students. This article examines the movements for reform to civil service quotas, and for improved road safety, seen primarily in Dhaka in 2018. Such movements pose two principal threats to the ruling party: first, they have the potential to undermine their legitimacy and create a moment of crisis on which the opposition could capitalise; second, they can exacerbate tensions between interest groups on whom the ruling party rely to maintain power. The state response of concessions and repression reflects these threats and the delicate balance of maintaining legitimacy while using coercion. With a rich history of political movements and a lack of alternative channels for political expression, responding to grievances that can motivate such movements will be an important challenge for the ruling party to maintain their grip on power.
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