Scales, Dynamics and Spatial Patterns of Forced Internal Displacement of Population in the East of Ukraine

Eastern Ukraine is a region where for the first time during the time of independent Ukraine in 2014 forced internal migration of the population arose, as well as a region that accepted almost 2/3 of all internally displaced persons (IDPs). The uneven concentration of IDPs in the Eastern region of Ukraine creates an excessive burden on the labor market, infrastructure, and local authorities. The purpose of the study is to identify and explain the spatio-temporal features of forced internal displacement in the East of Ukraine from 2014 to 2019. The study is based on statistics from the Ministry of Social Policy of Ukraine, Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv regional state administrations. The following research methods were used in the work: mathematical-statistical, analysis and synthesis method, generalization, description, systematization, retrospective, graphic, cartographic and cartographic modeling. The study of the dynamic aspects of IDPs in the region revealed a gradual decrease in the dynamics of the number of IDPs, which may be due to the successful integration of forced migrants into host communities, the reluctance to confirm the status of IDPs through bureaucratic procedures and periodic inspections, or with repeated displacement. Analysis of the spatial characteristics of IDPs by city, city councils and districts of the Eastern region of Ukraine allowed us to distinguish three categories of IDPs depending on their location in the region. Among them: the overwhelming majority – IDPs of retirement age, who are guided by the factor of territorial proximity, are registered in the areas closest to the demarcation line, although most of them actually live in territory beyond the control of Ukraine, and carry out periodic trips through the demarcation line; IDPs of working age, which are mainly located in cities for the purpose of employment and access to quality services; the most vulnerable and socially unprotected categories living in places of compact accommodation of IDPs, but their minority. The age structure of IDPs is considered, the predominant age group of all regions of Eastern Ukraine are pensioners. The regions with the highest share of pensioners and a large demographic burden of pensioners and IDP children on the local population are identified. In particular, in some areas of the Luhansk region, the number of IDP pensioners is almost double that of the local population of all age groups. This situation requires special attention, since an excessive concentration of IDP pensioners in these territories can lead to a deep demographic crisis. So, the socio-geographical analysis of the spatial distribution of IDPs in the Eastern region of Ukraine shows the real extent of forced internal population displacement in the region, and the analysis of the age structure of IDPs allows one to determine the options for the impact of forced migrations on the socio-economic development of host regions and serves as an indicator of the need to adopt appropriate programs or decisions regarding the improvement of the situation of IDPs.