110kV油浸变压器动态载流能力预测研究

Aogang Hou, Xuzhu Dong, J. Ruan, Yongqing Deng, Chen Zhang, Qiaofeng Chen
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引用次数: 0

摘要

为了缓解夏季短期负荷率高的问题,提高城市电力系统的输变电能力,提高变压器设备的利用率,本文对110kV油浸式变压器的动态载流能力预测进行了研究。本文首先采用GB 1094.7计算变压器的热点温度、顶油温度和24小时寿命损失率。其次,对长短期记忆神经网络模型(LSTM)进行训练和验证。与ARIMA模型相比,突出了LSTM的高精度和快速收敛性,根据一个月的电力负荷历史数据预测未来24小时的电力负荷数据。最后,设置热点温度极限、最高油温极限和寿命损失极限三个约束,根据预测的电力负荷数据和实时环境温度,计算油浸变压器正常、长期和短期的载流能力,得出结论:热点温度是影响变压器长期和短期负荷能力的限制因素,该变压器的长期载流能力是原变压器的1.61倍,短期载流能力是原变压器的1.64倍,为电力调度部门提供了一定的参考。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Research on Prediction of Dynamic Current Carrying Capacity of 110kV oil Immersed Transformer
In order to alleviate the problem of high short-term load rate in summer, improve the power transmission and transformation capacity of urban power system and improve the utilization rate of transformer equipment, the dynamic current carrying capacity prediction of 110kV oil immersed transformer is studied in this paper. This paper first calculates the hot spot temperature, top oil temperature and 24-hour life loss percentage of the transformer by using GB 1094.7. Secondly, the long-term and short-term memory neural network model (LSTM) is trained and verified. Compared with ARIMA model, it highlights the high accuracy and rapid convergence of LSTM, and predicts the power load data in the next 24 hours according to the historical data of power load in one month. Finally, set the three constraints of hot spot temperature limit, top oil temperature limit and life loss limit, calculate the normal, long-term and short-term current carrying capacity of oil immersed transformer according to the predicted power load data and real-time ambient temperature, and draw a conclusion: hot spot temperature is the limiting factor affecting the long-term and short-term load capacity of transformer, and the long-term current carrying capacity of this transformer is 1.61 times that of the original, The short-term current carrying capacity is 1.64 times of the original, which provides a certain reference for the power dispatching department.
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