{"title":"检验干散货航运市场的投机泡沫:多因素方法","authors":"L. Cocconcelli, F. Medda","doi":"10.1504/IJDSRM.2016.079795","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The dry bulk industry witnessed a boom and bust phase between 2005 and 2010. The aim of this work is to assess whether this pattern was driven by speculation or was a supply and demand outcome. In order to evaluate the presence of speculation, a global multi-factor risk model is implemented to estimate the long-term (cointegration) relationship between freight rates and cargo prices. The empirical results obtained suggest that a speculative period took place in the dry bulk industry between 2005 and 2011.","PeriodicalId":170104,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Decision Sciences, Risk and Management","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2016-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Testing a speculative bubble in the dry bulk shipping market: a multi-factor approach\",\"authors\":\"L. Cocconcelli, F. Medda\",\"doi\":\"10.1504/IJDSRM.2016.079795\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"The dry bulk industry witnessed a boom and bust phase between 2005 and 2010. The aim of this work is to assess whether this pattern was driven by speculation or was a supply and demand outcome. In order to evaluate the presence of speculation, a global multi-factor risk model is implemented to estimate the long-term (cointegration) relationship between freight rates and cargo prices. The empirical results obtained suggest that a speculative period took place in the dry bulk industry between 2005 and 2011.\",\"PeriodicalId\":170104,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"International Journal of Decision Sciences, Risk and Management\",\"volume\":\"7 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2016-10-17\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"1\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"International Journal of Decision Sciences, Risk and Management\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1504/IJDSRM.2016.079795\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Journal of Decision Sciences, Risk and Management","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1504/IJDSRM.2016.079795","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Testing a speculative bubble in the dry bulk shipping market: a multi-factor approach
The dry bulk industry witnessed a boom and bust phase between 2005 and 2010. The aim of this work is to assess whether this pattern was driven by speculation or was a supply and demand outcome. In order to evaluate the presence of speculation, a global multi-factor risk model is implemented to estimate the long-term (cointegration) relationship between freight rates and cargo prices. The empirical results obtained suggest that a speculative period took place in the dry bulk industry between 2005 and 2011.
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