基于多层残差修正的不等区间GM(1,1)预测模型的构建及应用

Ling Kegang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

边坡位移预测可以有效地预防边坡灾害的发生。原始的灰色GM(1,1)模型通常用于等距监测数据序列的模拟和预测,但实际情况是得到的监测数据出现不等间隔现象。因此,在分析原等区间GM(1,1)模型的建立原理的基础上,建立了不等区间灰色GM(1,1)模型,并讨论了灰色参数的计算方法。最后,将改进后的模型应用于渝黔高速公路某边坡的B3监测数据分析。将改进的灰色参数计算方法与常规方法进行比较,证明改进的GM(1,1)模型具有较高的精度,预测结果与边坡的实际行为吻合较好。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Construction and application of unequal interval GM (1,1) prediction model based on multilevel residual amendment
Prediction for slope displacement can prevent the occurrence of slope disasters effectively. Original grey GM(1,1) model is usually used in simulation and prediction of equidistant monitoring data sequence, but the actual situation is the monitoring data which obtained appear unequal interval phenomenon. So, unequal interval grey GM(1,1) model is established after analyzing the establishing principal of original equal interval GM(1,1) model, and the method for calculating the grey parameter is discussed. At last, the improved model is applied for analyzing the B3 monitoring data of a slope of the YU-QIAN highway. By comparing the improved method for grey parameter calculation with the conventional method, it is proved that the modified GM(1,1) model has high accuracy and the prediction results agrees well with the actual behavior of the slope.
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