现金流折现法改善土工布道路的可行性研究——以柏劳煤为例

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摘要

Lati矿山运营是PT Berau Coal旗下的露天采矿业务之一。该地区的年覆盖层去除产量目标为134,556,000 BCM,到2022年煤炭产量为8,631,000 MT。在2022年上半年,实际覆盖层去除率达到了94%。基于帕累托产量损失分析,卸除上覆岩损失最大的因素是运力参数。卡车生产效率问题的根本原因是路面材料的使用,而路面材料的使用直接影响到道路状况。路面材料主要来自于干扰材料,这些干扰材料对路基层的承载能力较低,对路面的破坏有较大影响。土工布在矿山道路加固中的应用是提高生产率和降低维修成本的一项改进措施。因此,需要通过全面的财务分析对项目投资进行评估,得出项目的财务可行性。本研究将使用资本预算分析来评估财务可行性,包括敏感性分析和风险分析。改善项目可行性分析基线结果良好,净现值(NPV)为2.232.785.016印尼盾,内部收益率(IRR)为42.56%,盈利指数(PI)为1.46,投资回收期(PBP)为1,2年。根据蒙特卡罗模拟,该项目失败(NPV < 0)的概率为0%,即该NPV项目在该项目中不存在产生负值或亏损的概率。综上所述,土工布改善矿山道路是可行的,并可能对提高矿山道路维护的生产率和成本效益产生最佳影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Feasibility Study of Road Improvement Geotextile using Discounted Cash Flow Method: Study Case of PT Berau Coal
Lati Mine Operation is one of the open pit mining operational owned by PT Berau Coal. This area has overburden removal production annual target 134,556,000 BCM and coal getting 8,631,000 MT in year 2022. In the first semester of 2022, actual overburden removal was achieved in 94% under the year to date plan. Based on pareto loss production analysis, the biggest lost contributor of overburden removal was came from hauler productivity parameter. The root cause of hauler productivity problem is material used for road surfacing which has implication to road condition. Road surfacing material was came from redisturb material that cause low bearing capacity on subgrade layer and impacted to road damage on the surface. One of improvement can be done to increase productivity and reduce cost maintenance is investment of geotextile implementation to mine road reinforcement. Therefore, project investment need to be evaluated through a comprehensive financial analysis to get financial feasibility of this project. This research will use capital budgeting analysis to evaluate the financial feasibility, including sensitivity analysis and risk analysis. The baseline of feasibility analysis regarding improvement project shows good result with Net Present Value (NPV) worth IDR 2.232.785.016, Internal Rate Return (IRR) of 42,56%, 1,46 of Profitability Index (PI) , and 1,2 years of payback period (PBP). Based on Monte Carlo Simulation, the probability of this project failing (NPV < 0) is 0%, or in the other words, there is no probability that the NPV project will generate negative value or loss in this project. In conclusion, mine road improvement using geotextile is feasible and potentially give optimum impact on increase productivity and cost efficiency regarding to mine road maintenance.
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