本福德定律与COVID-19报告

ERN: Public Goods & International Public Goods (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-04-28 DOI:10.2139/ssrn.3586413

Christoffer Koch, Kentaro Okamura

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引用次数: 4

摘要

对决策者来说，信任传染病报告的实时数据非常重要。媒体和政界人士对中国报告的新冠肺炎病例数据表示怀疑。我们发现，中国确诊病例的分布符合本福德定律的预期，与美国和意大利的情况相似，因此没有发现操纵的证据。世界其他国家的政策制定者应该相信中国的数据，并据此制定政策。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Benford's Law and COVID-19 Reporting

Trust in the reported data of contagious diseases in real time is important for policy makers. Media and politicians have cast doubt on Chinese reported data on COVID-19 cases. We find Chinese confirmed infections match the distribution expected in Benford’s Law and are similar to that seen in the U.S. and Italy and thus find no evidence of manipulation. Policy makers in the rest of the world should trust the Chinese data and formulate policy accordingly.

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ERN: Public Goods & International Public Goods (Topic)

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