分析全球贸易战争对东盟5经济状况的影响

Dikdik Kusdiana, Nurul Hasijah
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引用次数: 0

摘要

国与国之间的国际贸易旨在支持经济增长。根据贸易平衡的结果,可以研究国家进行国际贸易成功的迹象。在本研究中,研究者观察了中美贸易战对全球贸易的影响对东盟国家国际贸易竞争活动的影响。采用随机效应模型(REM)模型面板数据,通过最小二乘虚拟变量(LSDV)技术进行定量分析。本研究观察的对象是中美贸易差额、国际收支、进口和汇率等自变量。而观察到的依赖方差是5个东盟国家(印度尼西亚、马来西亚、菲律宾、新加坡和泰国)的经济增长。数据处理分析的结果表明,美中贸易差额和汇率对东盟5国的经济增长产生了显著的负面影响。另一方面,对国际收支和进口也有积极的影响。该模型表明,中美贸易差额、国际收支、进口和汇率等变量共同对东盟5国的经济增长产生影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Analisis Pengaruh Perang Dagang Global Terhadap Kondisi Ekonomi ASEAN 5
International trade between countries aims to support economic growth. Indications of the success of international trade carried out by the state can be studied based on the results of the trade balance. In this study, researchers observed the impact of international trade competition activities in ASEAN countries due to the U.S.-China trade war that affects global trade. The study was analyzed through quantitative methods using Random Effect Model (REM) model panel data through the Least Squares Dummy Variable (LSDV) technique. The object of the study observed is the independent variables of the U.S.-China trade balance, balance of payments, imports and exchange rates. While the dependent variance observed is the economic growth of 5 ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand). The results of the analysis of data processing explained that the U.S.-China balance of trade and exchange rates had a significant negative impact on the economic growth of the 5 ASEAN countries. On the other hand, the balance of payments and imports has a positive impact. The model shows that together the variables of the U.S.-China balance of trade, balance of payments, imports and exchange rates have an impact on the economic growth of the 5 ASEAN countries.
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