大流行后的经济展望

Mircea Coșea
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This process easily went beyond the regulations of the liberalization of trade in goods, returning to protectionism with nationalist accents as well as to bans on food and medicine exports. The principle of European solidarity is being threatened by unilateral decisions taken by Member States, or by the abandonment of European agreements in order to replace them by national decisions. Globalization was based on the imperative to produce, sell and buy, move, circulate, move on. Its ideology of progress is based on the idea that the economy must definitely replace politics. The essence of the system was the abolishment of limits: more trade, more and more goods, more and more profits to allow money to circulate and turn into capital. This whole concept of development has ceased to be the guiding principle of economic growth and development, thecurrent trend being the return to national borders, if not in a strictly territorial sense, at least in an economic sense. That is why one of the important changes of recent months is the emergence of policies designedto change the meaning of supply chains. Rethinking supply chains is a consequence of border closures or of the sudden closure of transport. It is a critical point of pressure that weighs mainly on car manufacturers and capitalgoods. As a result, there will be a trend of relocating production to European or Maghreb countries where wages remain lower than the European average. Another quick and important change is the one related to the role of the state in the economy, neoliberalism successfully promoting throughout the global economy the idea of the need for the limited role of state decision and state interventionism in the economy. The current change consists precisely in reversing the role of the state from passivity to activity, considered as the only one capable of ensuring an efficient system for managing the pandemic and restarting the economy. For many analysts, the coronavirus crisis could lead to a profound change in the global economic model and in the individual economic behavior.This is an extremely important issue also from the perspective of Romania's future. We are at a turning point and will have to make quick and complex decisions, because Romania risks entering a post-crisis period in an economic stagnation difficult to overcome, due to the lack ofproductivity, innovation and modern management. The gaps between Romania and the vast majority of European countries will be maintained, condemning us to occupy a marginal and lower place in the hierarchy of the European economy, characterized by a high and dangerous degree of dependence on the evolution and dynamics of markets in the strong states of the European Union. The explanation of this situation lies in the type and functioning of the structure of the Romanian economy. The current structure of the Romanian economy lies on the last concentric circle of European integration, if its center is considered the western core of theEU. There is no doubt about this inevitability. The crisis caused by the pandemic already exists and despite the optimism of some international financial institutions it will profoundly affect the state of the world economy and the life of the citizens. There will be not only major changes in the paradigm of the neoliberal model of the global economy but also changes in the balance of power between the world's major economic and political actors. The trade war between the USA and China is also beginning to have important political aspects, as the fight for world leadership between these two superpowers is generating tensions over the entire world. These tensions will surely have many \"collateral victims\" through the direct and indirect damage that many national economies, even the European Union, will suffer, as a result of the economicand political consequences of the US and China entering a state that some Western analysts define as \" a cold war but with a tendency to warm up\". These elements will aggravate the pressure that the pandemic crisis will put on the state of the world economy, determining the extent and depth of the effects of the crisis not only on the economic field but also on the balance and stability of international relations.Keywords: coronavirus crisis; value chains; multilateralism-unilateralism; protectionism, neoliberal global economic model.","PeriodicalId":202020,"journal":{"name":"STRATEGIES XXI - National Defence College","volume":"45 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"A VISION OF THE POST-PANDEMIC ECONOMY\",\"authors\":\"Mircea Coșea\",\"doi\":\"10.53477/2668-5094-21-23\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Coronavirus has generated changes and mutations not only in the conduct of our daily lives, but also in the organization and functioning of the economic mechanism at national and global level.The rapid changes and shifts that are taking place in the economy are for the moment the result of the political mainstream, especially the governmental one, and of the system of internationalfinancial institutions. 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Its ideology of progress is based on the idea that the economy must definitely replace politics. The essence of the system was the abolishment of limits: more trade, more and more goods, more and more profits to allow money to circulate and turn into capital. This whole concept of development has ceased to be the guiding principle of economic growth and development, thecurrent trend being the return to national borders, if not in a strictly territorial sense, at least in an economic sense. That is why one of the important changes of recent months is the emergence of policies designedto change the meaning of supply chains. Rethinking supply chains is a consequence of border closures or of the sudden closure of transport. It is a critical point of pressure that weighs mainly on car manufacturers and capitalgoods. As a result, there will be a trend of relocating production to European or Maghreb countries where wages remain lower than the European average. Another quick and important change is the one related to the role of the state in the economy, neoliberalism successfully promoting throughout the global economy the idea of the need for the limited role of state decision and state interventionism in the economy. The current change consists precisely in reversing the role of the state from passivity to activity, considered as the only one capable of ensuring an efficient system for managing the pandemic and restarting the economy. For many analysts, the coronavirus crisis could lead to a profound change in the global economic model and in the individual economic behavior.This is an extremely important issue also from the perspective of Romania's future. We are at a turning point and will have to make quick and complex decisions, because Romania risks entering a post-crisis period in an economic stagnation difficult to overcome, due to the lack ofproductivity, innovation and modern management. The gaps between Romania and the vast majority of European countries will be maintained, condemning us to occupy a marginal and lower place in the hierarchy of the European economy, characterized by a high and dangerous degree of dependence on the evolution and dynamics of markets in the strong states of the European Union. The explanation of this situation lies in the type and functioning of the structure of the Romanian economy. The current structure of the Romanian economy lies on the last concentric circle of European integration, if its center is considered the western core of theEU. There is no doubt about this inevitability. The crisis caused by the pandemic already exists and despite the optimism of some international financial institutions it will profoundly affect the state of the world economy and the life of the citizens. There will be not only major changes in the paradigm of the neoliberal model of the global economy but also changes in the balance of power between the world's major economic and political actors. The trade war between the USA and China is also beginning to have important political aspects, as the fight for world leadership between these two superpowers is generating tensions over the entire world. These tensions will surely have many \\\"collateral victims\\\" through the direct and indirect damage that many national economies, even the European Union, will suffer, as a result of the economicand political consequences of the US and China entering a state that some Western analysts define as \\\" a cold war but with a tendency to warm up\\\". 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引用次数: 0

摘要

冠状病毒不仅给我们的日常生活带来了变化和突变,也给国家和全球经济机制的组织和运作带来了变化和突变。目前经济中正在发生的迅速变化和转变是政治主流,特别是政府主流和国际金融机构体系的结果。可见的和肯定的是,在放弃经济机制运行的意识形态原则和既定规则方面,消除了一些限制。因此,作为全球经济政策整体框架基础的新古典主义意识形态很容易妥协,承认在当前条件下,在抵消大流行病对经济的影响方面,国家干预主义比自由市场法律发挥更重要的作用。这一过程很容易超越商品贸易自由化的规定,回到带有民族主义色彩的保护主义,以及禁止食品和药品出口。欧洲团结的原则正受到会员国单方面决定的威胁,或因放弃欧洲协议以以国家决定取代它们而受到威胁。全球化是建立在生产、销售和购买、流动、流通和继续流动的必要性之上的。它的进步意识形态是建立在经济一定要取代政治的基础上的。这一制度的本质是取消限制:更多的贸易,越来越多的商品,越来越多的利润,使货币流通并转化为资本。整个发展概念已不再是经济增长和发展的指导原则,目前的趋势是回归国界,如果不是严格意义上的领土,至少是经济意义上的国界。这就是为什么最近几个月的一个重要变化是,旨在改变供应链含义的政策出现了。重新思考供应链是边境关闭或运输突然关闭的结果。这是一个主要对汽车制造商和资本品施加压力的临界点。因此,将有一种趋势是将生产转移到工资仍然低于欧洲平均水平的欧洲或马格里布国家。另一个快速而重要的变化与国家在经济中的作用有关,新自由主义成功地在全球经济中推广了国家决策和国家干预主义在经济中的有限作用的必要性。当前的变化恰恰是将国家的角色从被动转变为主动,被认为是唯一能够确保有效管理大流行和重新启动经济的系统。对许多分析人士来说,冠状病毒危机可能会导致全球经济模式和个人经济行为的深刻变化。从罗马尼亚未来的角度来看,这也是一个极其重要的问题。我们正处于一个转折点,必须迅速作出复杂的决定,因为罗马尼亚有可能进入后危机时期,由于缺乏生产力、创新和现代管理,经济停滞难以克服。罗马尼亚与绝大多数欧洲国家之间的差距将继续存在,使我们在欧洲经济的等级中处于边缘和较低的地位,其特点是高度和危险地依赖于欧洲联盟强国的市场演变和动态。对这种情况的解释在于罗马尼亚经济结构的类型和功能。罗马尼亚目前的经济结构位于欧洲一体化的最后一个同心圆上,如果它的中心被认为是欧盟的西部核心的话。这种必然性是毫无疑问的。大流行病造成的危机已经存在,尽管一些国际金融机构持乐观态度,但它将深刻影响世界经济状况和公民的生活。不仅全球经济新自由主义模式的范式将发生重大变化,而且世界主要经济和政治参与者之间的力量平衡也将发生变化。美国和中国之间的贸易战也开始具有重要的政治方面,因为这两个超级大国之间争夺世界领导权的斗争正在全世界引发紧张局势。中美两国进入一种被一些西方分析家定义为“冷战但有升温趋势”的状态所带来的经济和政治后果,肯定会给许多国家的经济,甚至欧盟,带来直接和间接的损害,这些紧张关系肯定会有许多“附带受害者”。 这些因素将加剧这场大流行病危机对世界经济状况造成的压力,决定这场危机不仅对经济领域而且对国际关系的平衡与稳定产生影响的程度和深度。关键词:冠状病毒危机;价值链;multilateralism-unilateralism;保护主义,新自由主义的全球经济模式。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A VISION OF THE POST-PANDEMIC ECONOMY
Coronavirus has generated changes and mutations not only in the conduct of our daily lives, but also in the organization and functioning of the economic mechanism at national and global level.The rapid changes and shifts that are taking place in the economy are for the moment the result of the political mainstream, especially the governmental one, and of the system of internationalfinancial institutions. What is visible and certain is the elimination of some limits in giving up ideological principles and established rules of the functioning of the economic mechanism. Thus, the neoclassical ideology, the foundation of the whole scaffolding of the global economic policies, easily compromises by admitting that in the current conditions state interventionism has a more  important role than free market laws in counteracting the effects of the pandemic on the economy. This process easily went beyond the regulations of the liberalization of trade in goods, returning to protectionism with nationalist accents as well as to bans on food and medicine exports. The principle of European solidarity is being threatened by unilateral decisions taken by Member States, or by the abandonment of European agreements in order to replace them by national decisions. Globalization was based on the imperative to produce, sell and buy, move, circulate, move on. Its ideology of progress is based on the idea that the economy must definitely replace politics. The essence of the system was the abolishment of limits: more trade, more and more goods, more and more profits to allow money to circulate and turn into capital. This whole concept of development has ceased to be the guiding principle of economic growth and development, thecurrent trend being the return to national borders, if not in a strictly territorial sense, at least in an economic sense. That is why one of the important changes of recent months is the emergence of policies designedto change the meaning of supply chains. Rethinking supply chains is a consequence of border closures or of the sudden closure of transport. It is a critical point of pressure that weighs mainly on car manufacturers and capitalgoods. As a result, there will be a trend of relocating production to European or Maghreb countries where wages remain lower than the European average. Another quick and important change is the one related to the role of the state in the economy, neoliberalism successfully promoting throughout the global economy the idea of the need for the limited role of state decision and state interventionism in the economy. The current change consists precisely in reversing the role of the state from passivity to activity, considered as the only one capable of ensuring an efficient system for managing the pandemic and restarting the economy. For many analysts, the coronavirus crisis could lead to a profound change in the global economic model and in the individual economic behavior.This is an extremely important issue also from the perspective of Romania's future. We are at a turning point and will have to make quick and complex decisions, because Romania risks entering a post-crisis period in an economic stagnation difficult to overcome, due to the lack ofproductivity, innovation and modern management. The gaps between Romania and the vast majority of European countries will be maintained, condemning us to occupy a marginal and lower place in the hierarchy of the European economy, characterized by a high and dangerous degree of dependence on the evolution and dynamics of markets in the strong states of the European Union. The explanation of this situation lies in the type and functioning of the structure of the Romanian economy. The current structure of the Romanian economy lies on the last concentric circle of European integration, if its center is considered the western core of theEU. There is no doubt about this inevitability. The crisis caused by the pandemic already exists and despite the optimism of some international financial institutions it will profoundly affect the state of the world economy and the life of the citizens. There will be not only major changes in the paradigm of the neoliberal model of the global economy but also changes in the balance of power between the world's major economic and political actors. The trade war between the USA and China is also beginning to have important political aspects, as the fight for world leadership between these two superpowers is generating tensions over the entire world. These tensions will surely have many "collateral victims" through the direct and indirect damage that many national economies, even the European Union, will suffer, as a result of the economicand political consequences of the US and China entering a state that some Western analysts define as " a cold war but with a tendency to warm up". These elements will aggravate the pressure that the pandemic crisis will put on the state of the world economy, determining the extent and depth of the effects of the crisis not only on the economic field but also on the balance and stability of international relations.Keywords: coronavirus crisis; value chains; multilateralism-unilateralism; protectionism, neoliberal global economic model.
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