土耳其国内能源市场电价分析

2015 9th International Conference on Electrical and Electronics Engineering (ELECO) Pub Date : 2015-11-01 DOI:10.1109/ELECO.2015.7394574

Alisan Ayvaz, O. Ozgonenel, Birsen Boylu Ayvaz

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引用次数: 0

摘要

不同电价的市场参与者寻求新的方法，为未来的运营规划提供思路。自2011年土耳其电力市场实行日前市场监管以来，电价预测已成为一个重要问题。电力价格的不确定性导致投资者将定价视为经济损失的风险。因此，市场活跃参与者的数量下降到60%左右。本文旨在将电价行为拟合为统计分布，以帮助市场参与者。在本研究中，我们使用了几个统计分布函数来确定电价行为。历史电价数据来源于PMUM网站，由小时电价组成。对不同时期的不同日内需求水平进行了分析。结果表明，在长期分析中，电价行为最符合GEV分布。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Analysis of electricity price in the Turkish domestic energy market

Market participants across the variable electricity prices seek new ways to give an idea for operation planning in the future. Since the day-ahead market regulation met with Turkey's electricity market in 2011, electricity price forecasting has become a significant issue. Uncertainty in electricity prices caused investors to see pricing as a risk of economic loss. Therefore, the number of active participants in the market fell to about 60%. This paper aims to fit electricity price behavior to a statistical distribution in order to help market participants. We used a couple of statistical distribution functions in this study to determine electricity price behavior. The historical electricity price data were obtained from the website of PMUM, which consisted of hourly prices. Analyses were carried out for different intraday demand levels in different periods. The results indicated that the electricity price behavior best fits the GEV distribution in long-term analysis.

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2015 9th International Conference on Electrical and Electronics Engineering (ELECO)

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