物流的未来趋势及其变革影响

Armindo Frias, M. Simões-Marques, Pedro B. Água, Anacleto Correia
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引用次数: 0

摘要

自动驾驶汽车、人工智能(AI)、物联网、无人机、3D打印、绿色燃料或可持续实践被视为未来物流的圣杯。但是,它们的采用对人们的生活和社会有什么影响呢?知识创造的活力和新方法和新技术的采用正在增加。与过去发生的情况相反,新技术出现后不再有稳定的时期,阻止社会顺利适应新的现实。变化和不确定的时期通常最终会影响人们的生活条件,例如工业革命的早期。因此,确定物流的新趋势及其对人们的影响将是相关的。预测潜在的问题,允许采取缓解措施。更敏捷的组织在响应不确定的环境和更大的客户定制需求方面表现出竞争优势,但可能意味着更少的工作稳定性,使人们游移不定。市场全球化和更长的供应链的存在,依赖于有效和高效的运输和通信技术,增加了自然和人为原因(如意识形态、文化或资源冲突)导致供应中断的风险,并带来经济和社会后果。最近的例子是COVID-19大流行,马士基航运公司遭受网络攻击,2021年长荣集装箱在苏伊士运河搁浅,或者当前的乌克兰战争。另一方面,技术的发展增加了系统的自动化和自主性,促进了人类参与的减少。人工智能和物联网的发展,除其他影响外,允许使用无人机执行最后一英里的交付,或者存在自动驾驶车辆,如船舶,飞机或卡车,进行长途运输。它们的采用可以降低成本,但也可以减少工作岗位。人们认识到,新技术本身创造新的就业机会;但相关的疑问是,他们是否会补偿失去的工作?在尊重道德和社会原则的同时,更可持续的活动(例如,对环境友好的活动)的存在为今世后代带来更好的生活条件。然而,它可能与现有的长供应链相冲突,或者意味着流程效率降低,从而导致客户的成本增加。这项工作的目的是将物流的主要未来趋势系统化,评估这些趋势对个人和社会日常生活可能产生的影响。为了实现这一目标,将进行文献综述,并调查专业人士的意见。这项工作的预期贡献是使主要物流的未来趋势系统化,并帮助预测因其采用而产生的人为因素后果。通过这项工作,可以确定后续的缓解措施,以避免对人们的生活和社会产生负面影响,从而使变化过程更加顺畅和可持续,符合绿色和循环经济的原则,以及联合国可持续发展目标的目标。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Logistics future trends and their transformative impact
Autonomous vehicles, Artificial Intelligence (AI), IoT, drones, 3D Printing, green fuels or sustainable practices are presented as the Holy Grail for the logistics of the future. But, what are the implications of their adoption in people’s lives and in the society?The dynamism of knowledge creation and the adoption of new methodologies and technologies are increasing. Contrary to what happened in the past, there are no longer periods of stability after the emergence of new technologies, preventing societies to smoothly adapt to the new reality. Periods of change and uncertainty usually end up affecting people’s living conditions - e.g. the early days of the industrial revolution. Thus, it will be relevant to identify the new trends in logistics and their impacts on people. Anticipating potential problems, allows for mitigating measures.More agile organizations represents a competitive advantage in responding to environments of uncertainty and greater customer customization requirement, but may imply less job stability, making people nomadic. The globalization of markets and the existence of even longer supply chains, dependent on effective and efficient transportation and communication technologies, increase the risk of supply disruption being exposed both to natural and anthropogenic causes (such as ideological, cultural or resource conflicts), with economic and social consequences. Recent examples are the COVID-19 Pandemics, the cyberattack to Maersk shipping company, the grounding of the Evergreen container, in the Suez Canal, in 2021, or the current war in Ukraine. On the other hand, technological evolution has increased the automation and autonomy of systems and boosted the reduction of human involvement. The development of AI and IoT allows, among other impacts, the use of drones to perform last mile deliveries or the existence of autonomous vehicles, being ships, planes or trucks, to carry out long-haul transport. Their adoption allows cost reduction, but also anticipates the reduction of jobs. It is recognized that new technologies themselves create new jobs; but the pertinent doubt is if they will compensate for the lost jobs? The existence of more sustainable activities (e.g., environmentally friendly), while respecting ethical and social principles, brings better living conditions for current and future generations. However, it can be conflicting with the existing long supply chains or imply lower process efficiency, leading to increased costs for customers.The aim of this work is to systematize the main future trends in logistics, assessing possible impacts that these trends can have on the daily life of individuals and society. To achieve this objective, a literature review will be carried out and the opinion of professionals will be surveyed. The expected contributions of this work are to systemize of the main logistics’ future trends and helping to anticipate the human factor consequences arising from its adoption. As a result of this work, subsequent mitigating measures to avoid negative impacts on people’s lives and society can be identify, leading to a smoother and more sustainable change process, in line with the principles of green and circular economy, and the targets of UN SDG.
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