比较提名与理想:差点与蒙特卡罗检验

Royce Carroll, Jeffrey B. Lewis, James Lo, K. Poole, H. Rosenthal
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引用次数: 72

摘要

空间投票的经验模型允许立法者在抽象政策或意识形态空间中的位置从他们的点名投票中推断出来。在过去的25年里,这些模型为美国国会和立法行为提供了更广泛的新见解(例如,参见Poole和Rosenthal, 1997)。现在有许多可供选择的模型、估计器和软件,研究人员可以使用它们从投票数据中恢复潜在的问题或意识形态空间。虽然这些不同的估计器通常产生本质上相似的估计,但也会产生重要的差异。在本文中,我们研究了两种主要方法(提名和理想)之间观察到的差异的来源。考虑到1994年至1997年最高法院和第109届参议院的数据,我们证明,虽然每个模型产生的估计中的一些观察到的差异源于其潜在行为假设的根本差异,但其他差异源于实施的任意差异。通过蒙特卡罗实验,我们发现无论在大型还是小型立法机构中,两种模型在立法者位置或点名中点的恢复方面都没有明显的优势。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Comparing Nominate and Ideal: Points of Difference and Monte Carlo Tests
Empirical models of spatial voting allow legislators' locations in an abstract policy or ideological space to be inferred from their roll call votes. Over the past 25 years, these models have provided new insights about the US Congress and legislative behavior more generally (see, for example, Poole and Rosenthal, 1997). There are now a number of alternative models, estimators, and software that researchers can use to recover latent issue or ideological spaces from voting data. While these different estimators usually produce substantively similar estimates, important differences also arise. In this paper, we investigate the sources of observed differences between two leading methods, NOMINATE and IDEAL. Considering data from the 1994 to 1997 Supreme Court and the 109th Senate, we demonstrate that while some observed differences in the estimates produced by each model stem from fundamental differences in their underlying behavioral assumptions, others arise from arbitrary differences in implementation. Using Monte Carlo experiments, we find that neither model has a clear advantage over the other in the recovery of legislator locations or roll call midpoints in either large or small legislatures.
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