أثر التحرير المالي على الاحتياطيات الأجنبية في الأردن

Aya Ahead Alfarkh, Prof. Ahmad Ibrahim Malawi
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摘要

本研究旨在调查金融自由化对约旦外汇储备的影响(1998-2018 年)。研究采用了若干诊断测试,如增强狄基-富勒(ADF)和菲利普斯-佩伦(PP)静态检验。结果表明,所有时间序列在其水平上都不是静态的,根据狄基-富勒检验(ADF),它们的一阶差分是静态的,但结果表明,一些时间序列在其水平上是静态的,根据菲利普斯-珀伦检验,一些时间序列在一阶差分上是静态的。为检验模型参数的稳定性,采用了 Cusum 稳定性检验,为检验协整关系,采用了自回归分布滞后(ARDL)约束检验方法。结果表明,金融自由度(作为金融自由化的替代变量)对外汇储备有积极的统计意义上的影响。因此,本研究建议扩大金融自由化,以增加约旦的外汇储备。关键词金融自由化 外汇储备 自回归分布滞后(ARDL)模型
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أثر التحرير المالي على الاحتياطيات الأجنبية في الأردن
This study aimed to investigate the impact of financial liberalization on foreign reserves in Jordan over the period (1998-2018). Several diagnostic tests have been applied, such as Augmented Dickey- Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) test for Stationarity. The results have shown that all of the time series are not stationary in their levels, where are their first differences are stationaryaccording to Dickey- Fuller test (ADF), but the results have shown that some of the time series are stationary in their levels and some of them are stationary in the first difference according to Phillips-Perron test. Cusum stability test was applied for checking the stability of the model parameters, and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound testing approach was applied for the cointegration test. The results have shown the financial freedom (as a proxy variable for financial liberalization) has a positive statistically significant impact on foreign reserves. So this study recommends to extend financial liberalization in order to increase foreign reserves in Jordan. Keywords: Financial Liberalization, Foreign reserves, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model.
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