乌克兰国民经济支持子系统在冲击干扰条件下的恢复力概念的方法和理论框架

S. Burlutska, S. Burlutskyi, V. Margasova
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摘要

本文从方法论和理论上论证并实际验证了应用弹性概念评估冲击对乌克兰国民经济供应子系统影响的可行性。本文认为,国民经济的供应子系统具有弹性特性,可以通过静态和适应机制吸收冲击干扰。在理论研究层面,提出了区分社会经济系统复原力的动态和静态组成部分。研究发现,社会经济系统在危机后吸收冲击的能力可以是先天的,也可以是适应性的。建议将先天复原力理解为抵御危机的系统能力。同时,一系列额外的努力或措施形成了适应性复原力,并决定了社会经济系统在危机情况下维持自身运作的能力。研究表明,在缺乏明确说明国民经济产出的充分统计信息的情况下,可以根据经济活动预期的准指数进行经验层面的研究。基于这一假设,研究建议使用乌克兰国家银行的商业活动预期指数(BAEI)来间接估计经济表现。研究确定,在俄罗斯联邦军事侵略的条件下,乌克兰国民经济表现出相当显著的静态恢复力,并有相对复苏的迹象。与此同时,在供应子系统层面,由于自然资本和生产资本的损失,以及大量人力资本从生产总量中释放,正在形成部署长期金融和经济危机的趋势。商业活动和静态复原力指标的中短期恢复趋势表明,国家在 2022 年做出了调整努力,并向乌克兰提供了大量外部资金支持。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
METHODOLOGICAL AND THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK OF THE CONCEPT OF THE RESILIENCY OF SUPPORT SUBSYSTEM OF THE UKRAINIAN NATIONAL ECONOMY IN THE CONDITIONS OF SHOCK DISTURBANCE
The paper deals with the methodological and theoretical substantiation and practical verification of the feasibility of applying the concept of resilience to assess the impact of shocks on the supply subsystem of the Ukrainian national economy. The paper suggests that the supply subsystem of the national economy has resilience properties and can absorb shock disturbances through both static and adaptive mechanisms. At the theoretical level of research, it was proposed to distinguish between the dynamic and static components of the resilience of the socio-economic system. It has been found that the ability of a socioeconomic system to absorb shocks after a crisis can be an innate or adaptive quality. It is proposed to understand innate resilience as a systemic ability to withstand crises. At the same time, a set of additional efforts or measures forms adaptive resilience and determines the ability of the socioeconomic system to maintain its own functioning in crisis situations. It is shown that in the lack of adequate statistical information specifying the national economic output the empirical level of research can be based on quasi-indices of economic activity expectations. Based on this assumption, the study proposes the use of the business activity expectations index (BAEI) of the National Bank of Ukraine for indirect estimates of economic performance. It is determined that in the conditions of military aggression of the Russian Federation, the national economy of Ukraine demonstrates a fairly significant static resilience with signs of relative recovery. At the same time, at the level of the supply subsystem, a trend of deployment of a long-term financial and economic crisis is being formed, both due to the loss of natural and produced capital, and the release of a significant amount of human capital from aggregate production. Medium- and short-term trends in the recovery of both business activity and the static resilience indicators are a sign of adaptive efforts on the part of the state and significant external financial support for Ukraine in 2022.
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