内陆国家和港口可达性

Yong-an Park
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引用次数: 7

摘要

内陆国家往往存在运输成本高、跨境手续复杂、距离全球市场遥远以及出海有限等瓶颈和问题。蒙古作为一个内陆国家,在20世纪80年代和90年代的经济增长率相对较低,但从21世纪后期开始,由于矿产资源和其他出口商品价格的持续上涨,蒙古的经济增长出现了新的势头。然而,高昂的运输费用和不易进入海洋使蒙古无法使其贸易伙伴和出口货物多样化。本文通过对运输成本的回归,特别是使用成本、保险和运费(CIF)金额与船上交货(FOB)金额和集装箱运输成本的比率,考察了蒙古与贸易伙伴国之间运输成本的基本因素。本文还利用重力模型对蒙古国与贸易伙伴国之间贸易量的决定变量进行了考察。在运输成本分析中,少于集装箱货物的运输成本直接受到陆路运输和海运运输距离以及与蒙古共同边境共享的影响。在Limao和Venables(2001)的论文中被认为具有决定性作用的过境国和伙伴国的交通基础设施密度的影响在分析中并不清楚。在蒙古与贸易伙伴贸易额的引力模型中,决定因素是贸易伙伴的国内生产总值(GDP)和蒙古与贸易伙伴的距离。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Land-locked Country and Port Accessibility
Land-locked countries tend to have bottlenecks and problems of high transport costs, complicated cross border procedures, long distance and remoteness to the global market, and limited accessibility to the sea. Mongolia as a land-locked country recorded comparatively low economic growth rate in the 1980s and 1990s but it could obtain a new momentum of economic growth from the late 2000s due to a continual price increase of mineral resources and other export goods. However, high transport costs and low accessibility to the sea prevent Mongolia from diversifying its trading partners and export goods. This paper examines elemental factors of transport costs between Mongolia and trading partner countries through regression of transport costs, particularly using the ratio of cost, insurance and freight (CIF) amounts to free on board (FOB) amounts and container transport costs. This also scrutinizes the deciding variables of trade volume between Mongolia and trading partner countries by using the gravity model. In a transport cost analysis, transport costs of less than container load (LCL) cargo are affected directly by the distance of land transport and shipping transport, and common border sharing with Mongolia. The effects from the density of transport infrastructures in a transit country and a partner country which were thought to be decisive in the paper by Limao and Venables (2001) are not clear in the analysis. In the gravity model on trade volume between Mongolia and trading partners, decisive factors are Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of a trading partner, and distance from Mongolia to trading partners.
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